Politico Reporting Thompson Expected to Drop Out After Iowa

Politico, the online political newspaper that tends to lean to the right, is reporting that sources close to the Fred Thompson campaign expect him to drop out if he finishes poorly in the Iowa caucuses. Thompson is also expected to endorse John McCain, who is enjoying a resurgence in New Hampshire. Thompson is one of those candidates who Washington types thought would be a great candidae, but who never caught on with the voters.

Although Thompson seems to be the first major candidate whose aides are talking to the media about dropping out, he certainly won't be the last. It is hard to see how candidates like Dodd and Biden, both of whom would probably make a good president, could continue following a poor showing in Iowa, especially if followed by a poor showing in New Hampshire.

For a lot of these candidates, both Republican and Democratic, there is a vicious cycle at work. They can't be competitive if they don't have donations coming in, but they can't get donations if they aren't getting media attention, and they can't get media attention without showing some movement in the polls. Movement in the polls, of course, depends on getting media attention.

Probably by the weekend after the New Hampshire primary each party will be down to three candidates with realistic chances of continuing until the big round of primaries on February 5. The Republicans will probably be Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. The Democrats will probably be Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. In each party, though, the primary season could go deeper than the media anticipates. Who knows, there may yet be a competitive primary for each party in Ohio on March 4.