How HIllary Clinton Won Nevada

CNN conducted an entrance poll where they polled Nevada voters as they went into the caucuses. The poll, which can be viewed by clicking on the above link, shows that Clinton beat Obama by taking women voters 51% to 38%; by taking voters 45 and older; by taking Democrats 51% to 39%; by taking white voters 52% to 34% and Latino voters 64% to 26%; by taking voters who cared most about the economy 49% to 40%; and by taking voters who cared most about health care 51% to 39%.

Interestingly Clinton also did well among voters who thought the debate conducted this last week was either very important or somewhat important. Among the first group, Clinton won 53% to 41%. Among the second group, Clinton won 48% to 37%. Most observers thought that Clinton had a good showing in that debate and it appears that Nevada voters agreed with them.

If you add in Edwards total to Clinton's total among white voters Obama only got 34% of white voters. This is obviously worse than he did in either Iowa or New Hampshire. In Nevada whites made up 65% of the vote and Afro-Americans and Latinos made up 15% of the vote each. In New Hampshire and Iowa whites made up a bigger percentage of the vote, yet Obama did better. Why?

One reason might be that Nevada is hurting economically. While Las Vegas is one of the fastest growing, if not the fastest growing, metropolitan area in the U.S., Nevada now leads the country in foreclosures. The percentage of caucus participants who thought the economy was the number one issue facing the country was 50%. The percentage who thought that about Iraq was 22% and the percentage who picked health care as the most important issue was 23%. Thus 73% of voters picked issues that, according to the CNN poll, favored Clinton over Obama.

Right now Clinton is trailing Obama in South Carolina polls by anywhere from 7% to 13%, according to polls reported on Talking Points Memo. Both Clinton and Obama are picking up some support while Edwards's support in going down. If Nevada is any guide, Clinton will pick up the white voters backing Edwards while Obama will pick up the Afro-American voters backing Edwards. If Edwards continues his downward slide when the voting starts, Obama will win, but it will be closer than the current polls indicate.