SurveyUSA has a poll out that shows Obama closing the gap with Clinton in California. Significantly, Obama has gone from 37 points down in October to 11 points down in a poll taken on January 28, 2008. This is the SurveyUSA explanation concerning the poll results:
In CA, Obama Closes On Clinton; Had Been Down 37, Now 11: In a Democratic Primary in California today, 01/28/08, eight days to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 49% to 38%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent CA poll released two weeks ago, before Obama's South Carolina win, Hillary Clinton is down 1 point, Obama is up 3 points, and John Edwards, who finishes today at 9%, is down 1 point. In October, Clinton led Obama by 37 points; today, it's 11 points. Obama today leads among men by 11 points; Clinton leads among women by 30 points -- a 41-point Gender Gap. Clinton today takes 43% of the white vote; Obama takes 41, a virtual tie, and significant in that Clinton led among white voters by 25 points at the beginning of December.
The two significant points from the above are gender gap and the percentage of white voters that Obama is receiving. In previous posts we have pointed out that Obama needs to be taking over 40% of the white vote to be competitive in a general election based on how Gore and Kerry did in 2000 and 2004. In this poll he is taking 41%. If he could do that nationally, he would have a good shot at winning the presidency against any Republican.
According to the SurveyUSA poll, Clinton leads Obama among Hispanics by a 65% to 28% margin and among Asian voters by a 53% to 31% margin. Among early voters, which has been going on for some time in Calfornia, Clinton leads by 56% to 32%. It is possible that Clinton could win the California primary because of Hispanic votes and because of early voting. Even if Obama loses the total vote, given the fact that the Democratic party has proportional voting, he will still win a lot of delegates in California.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment