Democrats Need Both Black and White Voters to Win

According to the Census Bureau, the United States population breaks down racially in the following percentages: White-73.9%; African-American-12.4%; Asian-4.4%; Native Americans-0.8%; Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander-0.1%; Some other race-6.3%;Hispanic/Latino-14.8%; and Two or more races-2.0%. This means that in order for Barack Obama to get elected he will have to get votes from millions of Americans who consider themselves "white" when asked their race.

Conversely, in order for Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, or any other white Democratic nominee to win the presidency,they have to get votes from millions of African-American voters. In 2004, John Kerry lost both the white male and the white female vote. He ran 25 points behind George W. Bush among white males and 11 points behind Bush among white females. The only reason why he carried 17 states and Washington, D.C. was because he carried non-white males by 37% and non-white females by 51%.

The above figures show why the tone of the race between Obama and Clinton is so distressing. When Democrats win, they usually win by getting around 49% or 51% of the popular vote. The only Democrat since Roosevelt to blow out a Republican was LBJ in 1964. He had the advantage of the Republicans nominating a candidate who was too far to the right for most Americans. Also, the Democratic Party coalition that FDR put together was just starting to come apart so the Democrats were stronger internally than they have been since 1964.

The Democrats have a great opportunity to put together a new governing coalition in America, one that will include Hispanics, African-American votes, white women, and white men, especially those in trade unions. The current tone of the 2008, though, could make putting that coalition together much tougher. As Rodney King famously once said, "Can't we all just get along?"

The reason why that advice is so crucial for Democrats is that if we don't find a way to get along we are going to end up with another four years of a conservative Republican. America, and the world, can't afford to take that risk.