Where Do Edward Supporters Go?

Those of us supporting John Edwards for President may soon have to face the fact that he is not going to be the Democratic nominee. Sooner or later in politics you have to win elections. So, assuming that Edwards is out, where does his support go?

The AP ran a story dated January 12, 2008 on that very issue. It is a very interesting article. Here's one quote from the article that illustrates why John Edwards is important to the Democratic Party:

Edwards draws much of his support from people over 50 and those without a college education, the survey found. His voters are more likely to be men than women, and a third are evangelical Christians — a much larger share than among Clinton or Obama voters.

The loss of such voters has been a problem for the Democratic Party. White men went for Bush over Kerry by a margin of 62% to 37%. Educationally, the only two groups that went for Kerry over Bush were those without high school diplomas, (50% to 49%) and those with post-graduate degrees, (55% to 44%). The only age group that Kerry carried were voters 18-29. In that age group Kerry got 54% and Bush got 45%. Kerry lost both Catholic and Protestant voters, but he really got killed among white, evangelical voters. He lost those voters by a 78% to 21% margin.(All of these figures are from the 2004 CNN exit poll.)

Given the fact that Kerry won 17 states and only lost the popular vote by approximately 3%, it is easy to see that Democrats would only have to do a little better with the above groups to win the presidency. The question becomes what Democratic candidate, other than Edwards, can get more votes out of the above groups than Kerry got.

It is a tough decision to make. This might be one reason why, according to the AP article, a poll taken in December showed that Edwards supporters were split evenly between Obama and Clinton when Edwards was removed from the equation. Here is a quote from the article:

A mid-December survey of voters nationally conducted for the AP and Yahoo News found that Edwards supporters split about evenly between Clinton and Obama when asked which candidate would be their second choice. Clinton and Obama each were the second choices of about 27 percent of Edwards supporters. Another 28 percent were unsure who would be their second choice, and the rest were thinly scattered among other candidates.

By the way, Edwards supporters nationwide amount to about 14% to 20% of the Democratic vote, according to national polls. In Medina County, where MCDAC is based, there are 16,776 Democratic voters. If Medina County reflects the nationwide average, then there would be approximately 2348 to 3355 Edwards supporters among Medina County Democrats. There could be more, however, since in the 2004 Democratic primary in Ohio, Edwards got 31.8% of the vote. Obviously, in a close election between Obama and Clinton, Edwards supporters could be a big factor.

So, where do Edwards supporters go? Both Clinton and Obama have a lot to recommend them. Obama is a new face, doesn't have the baggage of the whole Clinton-Lewinsky controversy, and is a very inspirational speaker. Clinton is experienced in the ways of Washington, has plenty of grit, can both take and deliver a punch, and has a great command of policy. My guess, though, for what it is worth, is that Obama will do a slightly better job of emotionally connecting with former Edwards supporters if Edwards is not a viable candidate by the time of the Ohio primary on March 4th, 2008.