New Ohio SurveyUSA Poll Shows Clinton Doing Better Than Obama Against McCain

SurveyUSA has a new poll out that shows Clinton beating McCain in Ohio while Obama loses to McCain in Ohio. The results make sense when you consider that in the recent Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary, Obama only carried four counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamiliton, and Montgomery. He lost other large counties including Lucas, Lorain, Summit, and Mahoning. This poll is also consistent with other SurveyUSA polls showing that he has also lost ground in Missouri and Kentucky.

While winning Kentucky is not essential for Democrats, winning either Missouri or Ohio would be extremely helpful in winning the electoral college vote this fall. The last two elections have been very close in the electoral college and in both elections Bush carried both states. If Democrats had carried Ohio in either 2000 or 2004, Bush would have lost those elections. If Democrats had carried Missouri in 2000, Bush would have lost that election. If Democrats could carry both states in 2008, it would be impossible for McCain to win the electoral college, assuming that the other states break the way they did in 2000 or 2004.

These polls show that the controversy over Rev. Wright's sermons are hurting Obama with white voters. Whether the damage is permanent is another question. It will be interesting to see if polls taken after Obama's speech in Philadelphia show him bouncing back.

SurveyUSA Has Clinton and Obama Both Beating McCain

Josh Marshall over at Talking Points Memo posted the following two images from SurveyUSA, which has done pretty good polling in the primaries so far. Note that both Obama and Clinton are beating McCain. Obama carries more states, but Clinton carries bigger states.

Obama Closing Gap on Clinton in California

SurveyUSA has a poll out that shows Obama closing the gap with Clinton in California. Significantly, Obama has gone from 37 points down in October to 11 points down in a poll taken on January 28, 2008. This is the SurveyUSA explanation concerning the poll results:

In CA, Obama Closes On Clinton; Had Been Down 37, Now 11: In a Democratic Primary in California today, 01/28/08, eight days to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 49% to 38%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Compared to SurveyUSA's most recent CA poll released two weeks ago, before Obama's South Carolina win, Hillary Clinton is down 1 point, Obama is up 3 points, and John Edwards, who finishes today at 9%, is down 1 point. In October, Clinton led Obama by 37 points; today, it's 11 points. Obama today leads among men by 11 points; Clinton leads among women by 30 points -- a 41-point Gender Gap. Clinton today takes 43% of the white vote; Obama takes 41, a virtual tie, and significant in that Clinton led among white voters by 25 points at the beginning of December.

The two significant points from the above are gender gap and the percentage of white voters that Obama is receiving. In previous posts we have pointed out that Obama needs to be taking over 40% of the white vote to be competitive in a general election based on how Gore and Kerry did in 2000 and 2004. In this poll he is taking 41%. If he could do that nationally, he would have a good shot at winning the presidency against any Republican.

According to the SurveyUSA poll, Clinton leads Obama among Hispanics by a 65% to 28% margin and among Asian voters by a 53% to 31% margin. Among early voters, which has been going on for some time in Calfornia, Clinton leads by 56% to 32%. It is possible that Clinton could win the California primary because of Hispanic votes and because of early voting. Even if Obama loses the total vote, given the fact that the Democratic party has proportional voting, he will still win a lot of delegates in California.

Clinton Leads in Most SurveyUSA Polls

A SurveyUSA poll done for two television stations in Ohio has Clinton leading all Republicans listed except for John McCain. The poll was taken on November 9, 2007. A November 1, 2007 poll by Survey USA had Clinton leading all Republicans listed in Florida. A SurveyUSA poll has Clinton leading all listed Repulicans in Kentucky.

Thus, in states that were battleground states in 2000 and 2004, Florida and Ohio, Clinton leads and in a state that is usually a safe Republican state, Clinton leads. Yet, constantly from the news media we hear and read stories that question Clinton's electability. This is usually based on the relatively high unfavorables that Clinton has when compared to other Democratic and Republican candidates.

The problem with such analysis, however, is that it overlooks the ability of Republicans, with their allies in the media like Fox News, to drive up the unfavorables of any Democratic candidate who wins the Democratic nomination. Can we say "Swift-boating", children?

What we know about Clinton is that she can take and deliver a punch. We don't know that nearly as well about Obama and Edwards. The question isn't whether the Republicans are going to attack and demonize the Democratic nominee. The question is whether such Democrat will fight back. The ability and willingness to fight back may be a lot more important than the negative ratings of the eventual Democratic nominee.