Thursday, March 20, 2008

New Ohio SurveyUSA Poll Shows Clinton Doing Better Than Obama Against McCain

SurveyUSA has a new poll out that shows Clinton beating McCain in Ohio while Obama loses to McCain in Ohio. The results make sense when you consider that in the recent Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary, Obama only carried four counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamiliton, and Montgomery. He lost other large counties including Lucas, Lorain, Summit, and Mahoning. This poll is also consistent with other SurveyUSA polls showing that he has also lost ground in Missouri and Kentucky.

While winning Kentucky is not essential for Democrats, winning either Missouri or Ohio would be extremely helpful in winning the electoral college vote this fall. The last two elections have been very close in the electoral college and in both elections Bush carried both states. If Democrats had carried Ohio in either 2000 or 2004, Bush would have lost those elections. If Democrats had carried Missouri in 2000, Bush would have lost that election. If Democrats could carry both states in 2008, it would be impossible for McCain to win the electoral college, assuming that the other states break the way they did in 2000 or 2004.

These polls show that the controversy over Rev. Wright's sermons are hurting Obama with white voters. Whether the damage is permanent is another question. It will be interesting to see if polls taken after Obama's speech in Philadelphia show him bouncing back.

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