McCain Talks About Ayers as Markets Crash

John McCain and Sarah Palin keep talking about William Ayers and the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps going down the toilet. Do you think that there is a connection here?

Possible Senate Pick-Ups in KY, NC, GA, and MS?

Since most of polls show McCain comfortably ahead in most Southern states, people may not be aware that close Senate races are developing in the South. Republican incumbents in North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi find themselves in very competitive races. In fact, according to this article in Politico, one McCain aide thinks that Elizabeth Dole is certain to lose in North Carolina.

Right now there are only four Democratic Senators from the 11 states that made up the Confederacy. There is one Democratic Senator in Louisana, two in Arkansas, and one in Florida. There are three Democratic Senators from the border states of West Virginia, Kentucky, and Missouri. They are found in West Virginia with two and one in Missouri. That could change after this election cycle.

Democrats are virtually guaranteed that they will pick up the open seat in Virginia. Right now the Democratic candidate is ahead in North Carolina. The GOP Majority Leader is in a much tougher race than anticipated in Kentucky. The appointed GOP Mississippi Senator is only up by about two percentage points. The Democrats are picking up steam in Georgia after the Republican incumbent voted for the Wall Street bailout.

The reason why these races are getting competitive is that southern states are not immune from the economic turmoil affecting America. Once you get below the race for president and into races where national security and race aren't as relevant to white voters, then Democrats are in a good position to make their case to a listening audience. Further, in North Carolina and Georgia, Democratic candidates are benefiting from the increase in the number of African-American voters caused by this spring's primaries between Clinton and Obama.

Keep your eye on those races, they could be very important in the Democrats' campaign to reach 60 votes in the Senate.

GOP Worried About Charges of Racism and Sexism During 2008 Campaign

Ever since 1968, when Richard Nixon adopted the Southern Strategy for winning the White House, the GOP has used racism to beat Democrats in national elections. The thinking is that you capture the 11 states of the Old Confederacy, combine them with farm belt states, and then get enough of the industrial states to win the electoral college. This thinking has paid off in wins in every presidential election since 1968 except in 1976, 1992, and 1996. Of course, the GOP lost the popular vote in 2000, but with the aid of the Republican United States Supreme Court managed to win the electoral college.

The strategy also paid off in Congressional races, as the states of the Old Confederacy provide the GOP with 18 Republican Senators and a substantial part of its membership in the House of Representatives.

There has been, however, a political price paid for that success. In the 1960s, the GOP carried most of New England, now it is barely competitive in New England. Nixon saw California as essential to his election prospects, now a GOP candidate cannot carry California. Still, during the 40 years from 1968 to 2008, the GOP has controlled the White House 28 of those years, and controlled both Houses of Congress for 12 of those years.

Given that success, you would think that the GOP would be chomping at the bit to run against either Obama or Clinton. Yet, according to a story in Politico, GOP operatives have become concerned over the possibility that the media will call their attacks on either Obama or Clinton racist or sexist.

This is an interesting dilemma for the GOP, and of course, one of their own making. It also shows how far we have come as a society since 1968, something that those of us who are Democrats tend to overlook.

Of course, we fully believe that the GOP will overcome its reluctance to engage in negative attacks against either Clinton or Obama when faced with the possibility of losing the White House. We also think that 527 groups, created just for this election, won't be nearly as squeamish about being called racist or sexist since such groups won't have a "brand" to worry about damaging. So we still expect one bitter and divisive campaign. After all, what can the Republicans run on, the great success of the Bush presidency?

Politico Reporting Thompson Expected to Drop Out After Iowa

Politico, the online political newspaper that tends to lean to the right, is reporting that sources close to the Fred Thompson campaign expect him to drop out if he finishes poorly in the Iowa caucuses. Thompson is also expected to endorse John McCain, who is enjoying a resurgence in New Hampshire. Thompson is one of those candidates who Washington types thought would be a great candidae, but who never caught on with the voters.

Although Thompson seems to be the first major candidate whose aides are talking to the media about dropping out, he certainly won't be the last. It is hard to see how candidates like Dodd and Biden, both of whom would probably make a good president, could continue following a poor showing in Iowa, especially if followed by a poor showing in New Hampshire.

For a lot of these candidates, both Republican and Democratic, there is a vicious cycle at work. They can't be competitive if they don't have donations coming in, but they can't get donations if they aren't getting media attention, and they can't get media attention without showing some movement in the polls. Movement in the polls, of course, depends on getting media attention.

Probably by the weekend after the New Hampshire primary each party will be down to three candidates with realistic chances of continuing until the big round of primaries on February 5. The Republicans will probably be Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. The Democrats will probably be Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. In each party, though, the primary season could go deeper than the media anticipates. Who knows, there may yet be a competitive primary for each party in Ohio on March 4.

GOP Troubles Continue as Sen. Craig Reconsiders Resigning

The rumors were out on the Internet over the last two days that Sen. Larry Craig was reconsidering his decision to resign from the Senate due to his arrest for an incident in a airport bathroom in Minneapolis. Now, Politico has two stories up on about Craig's resignation. This report, put up on September 4, 2007, confirms that Craig is looking at his options. This report, also put up on September 4, 2007, points out that his GOP colleagues aren't happy with this turn of events.

One of the problems for the GOP Senate leadership is that the longer this takes to resolve, the more people are going to raise the question about why the difference in treatment between Sen. David Vitter from Louisiana and Sen. Craig from Idaho. Reporters raised this issue yesterday with McConnell, according to this story posted on Politico on September 4, 2007. The situation involving Craig will be interesting to watch over the next few days.