Sunday, October 05, 2008
Columbus Dispatch Poll Has Obama Up by 7 In Ohio
The picture above is the headline on an article that appears on the Columbus Dispatch website. The article is about the results of a mail-in poll that was conducted in Ohio among likely voters. The poll shows that Obama is leading 49% to 42%. The last time the Dispatch reported on a poll that it took of likely voters, McCain led by one percentage point. That poll was conducted in mid-August, right before each party's national convention.
The internals of the poll are rather interesting. One is that if you look at the state's regions, the northwest and the northeast are where Obama is leading McCain. Another is that 18% of former Clinton supporters are backing McCain,66% of former Clinton supporters are backing Obama, and 14% of Clinton primary voters are undecided. Overall, Obama was getting the support of 84% of Democrats, McCain was getting 7% of Democrats, and 8% of Democrats were undecided. McCain is getting 90% of Republicans, Obama is getting 5% of Republicans, and 5% of Republicans were undecided. Since, however, Democratic identification ran 10% higher in this poll than Republican identification, Obama can afford to lose a higher percentage of his own party than McCain.
The Dispatch article points out that McCain, by pulling out of Michigan, means that Ohio becomes even more important to his chances. Likewise, if Obama can take Ohio, then the chances of McCain winning enough states to capture the 270 votes needed to win the electoral college are very slim, if not impossible.
Expect to see even more negative campaign ads from the McCain campaign here in Ohio. You know, the ads that a friend of ours refers to as "the Obama is going to come to your home and take your women" ads. In other words, once again we will see typical Republican bs on our TV screens. Given our economic problems here in Ohio, however, our betting is that it won't work.