The image to the left is from the Columbus Dispatch website. The headline is from an article that appeared on Sunday, November 2, 2008. The article reports on the last of the Dispatch polls for the 2008 presidential race. The last poll that the Dispatch did showed Obama with a 7 point lead. This poll shows him with a 6 point lead, both margins are outside of the margin of error. 

The Dispatch claims that its poll has always predicted the winner of what it refers to as "modern" presidential elections, although it also points out that the last poll taken on the 2004 election had Kerry and Bush tied. Bush went on to win by 2.1% of the vote. I am assuming that the 2004 Dispatch poll showing them tied was within the poll's margin of error. 

The Dispatch poll shows Cordray easily winning election as Ohio's Attorney General. It also shows casino gambling failing and it shows the regulations on payday lending being supported by Ohio voters. 

When you look at the internal numbers for the poll, it shows Obama leading in the Northeast, the Northwest, and what the poll calls the Central, parts of Ohio. It shows Obama losing in the Southeast, Southwest, and what it calls the West Central, parts of Ohio. 

Interestingly, for all the talk about how Obama would have trouble with working class white voters, the poll shows Obama winning every income group up to $70,000, and then losing every income group above that figure. The next group after $70,000, which is $70,000 to $80,000, Obama only loses by four points. 

Another interesting statistic is the difference between early voters and those who have not yet voted. Among those who reported already casting their absentee ballots, Obama leads by 14%, but among those who have not yet voted, he only leads by 2%. 

You can read the whole article here. 

Columbus Dispatch Poll Has Obama Up by 7 In Ohio

The picture above is the headline on an article that appears on the Columbus Dispatch website. The article is about the results of a mail-in poll that was conducted in Ohio among likely voters. The poll shows that Obama is leading 49% to 42%. The last time the Dispatch reported on a poll that it took of likely voters, McCain led by one percentage point. That poll was conducted in mid-August, right before each party's national convention.

The internals of the poll are rather interesting. One is that if you look at the state's regions, the northwest and the northeast are where Obama is leading McCain. Another is that 18% of former Clinton supporters are backing McCain,66% of former Clinton supporters are backing Obama, and 14% of Clinton primary voters are undecided. Overall, Obama was getting the support of 84% of Democrats, McCain was getting 7% of Democrats, and 8% of Democrats were undecided. McCain is getting 90% of Republicans, Obama is getting 5% of Republicans, and 5% of Republicans were undecided. Since, however, Democratic identification ran 10% higher in this poll than Republican identification, Obama can afford to lose a higher percentage of his own party than McCain.

The Dispatch article points out that McCain, by pulling out of Michigan, means that Ohio becomes even more important to his chances. Likewise, if Obama can take Ohio, then the chances of McCain winning enough states to capture the 270 votes needed to win the electoral college are very slim, if not impossible.

Expect to see even more negative campaign ads from the McCain campaign here in Ohio. You know, the ads that a friend of ours refers to as "the Obama is going to come to your home and take your women" ads. In other words, once again we will see typical Republican bs on our TV screens. Given our economic problems here in Ohio, however, our betting is that it won't work.

Respected Republican Judge Throws Out GOP Campaign Finance Law

The Columbus Dispatch is reporting that Franklin County Common Pleas Judge John Bender, a Republican who used to be legal counsel to Bob Taft when he was Ohio's Secretary of State, has struck down the campaign finance law the GOP passed in late 2006. The bill was passed after the Republicans had lost five out of six state-wide offices. The bill was aimed at curtailing unions from engaging in politics by helping to fund political campaigns.

This paragraph from the Dispatch article explains why Judge Bender struck down the law:

After the bill passed the legislature, the House clerk’s office left out 33 pages of the final bill. It was that incomplete version that was attested to by the House speaker and Senate president, and then signed into law by Gov. Bob Taft.

After the mistake was discovered, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner let the House clerk substitute the first 33 pages of House Bill 694, even though it already had been filed with her office. The missing text dealt with union contributions; at the time, Brunner said the fixing of clerical errors was permitted in years past.

The unions sued earlier this year. Common Pleas Court Judge John F. Bender said late yesterday the General Assembly passed one bill, but the governor technically signed a different bill.

The bottom line for Bender: The governor can’t sign a bill not passed by the General Assembly, and lawmakers can’t send the governor a bill that they did not pass.

The fact that a Democratic Secretary of State allowed the Republicans to substitute the first 33 pages of the bill's text with her office, but it was then struck down by a Republican judge actually helps any future judicial review of Judge Bender's actions. What also helps is the reputation of John Bender for being a very fair judges and one who carefully considers his decisions.

This doesn't mean that campaign finance is dead in Ohio. What it does mean, if the ruling stands, is that the Republicans controlling the General Assembly won't be able to pass a one-sided bill. Of course, if they can't pass a one-sided bill, maybe they won't want to pass one at all.

Dispatch Article About Medina State Representative Bill Batchelder's Quest for House Speakership

The Columbus Dispatch ran an article about Medina County's own Bill Batchelder and his campaign to become House Speaker. The article pointed out that both parties have leaders who are term limited in the Ohio House and therefore each party is going to have a leadership battle.

Besides the fight for leadership, there is also the continuing effort by the Ohio Democratic Party to take control of the Ohio House of Representatives. The article points out that neither party has ever taken control of the House from the other without using the reapportionment process. The House Democrats, however, are only four votes away from having the majority so they think that they can pull off a political upset next November.

The article points out that there is a four person team opposing State Representative Batchelder, but that he does have some important allies, including the Chair of the Franklin County Republican Party. Right Angle blog, a conservative blog for Republicans, is pushing for Batchelder to become Speaker.

Given the race for Speaker among Republicans, the effort by the Democrats to take back control of the Ohio House, and the fact that the Democratic House Leader is also term-limited, 2008 will be quite an interesting year in Columbus.

The Political Power of Intensity

One Saturday last October both Sherrod Brown and Mike DeWine appeared for voter rallies and campaigning in Medina County. The Sherrod Brown event drew around 150 people. The DeWine event drew six people. Think about that for a minute. An incumbent GOP Senator running in a very tough re-election campaign was only able to attract six people to the GOP Medina County Headquarters. As a friend of ours pointed out recently the above example shows the power of intensity in political campaigns.

This brings us to Senator Clinton's campaign in Medina County and Ohio. When he was recounting that story, our friend was remarking on why he thinks that Senator Clinton's campaign will have trouble in Ohio. He believes that Democratic activists will not be as emotionally committed to her campaign as Republicans will be emotionally committed to defeating her. He believes that while Democratic activists will still vote for Senator Clinton, she will not arouse their passions like other candidates such as Barack Obama.

In the link in this entry's title is a news article about Senator Clinton's speech at the Ohio State Democratic Party dinner last Saturday, April 12, 2007. In the article there is a note about dinner attendees not responding with enthusiasm when Congresswoman Stephanie T. Jones tried to lead them in a chant for Hillary. Although it is early, this incident may show a lack of political passion for Senator Clinton in Ohio. If true, that will make it much harder for her to win Ohio in 2008.