Sunday, November 02, 2008

The image to the left is from the Columbus Dispatch website. The headline is from an article that appeared on Sunday, November 2, 2008. The article reports on the last of the Dispatch polls for the 2008 presidential race. The last poll that the Dispatch did showed Obama with a 7 point lead. This poll shows him with a 6 point lead, both margins are outside of the margin of error. 

The Dispatch claims that its poll has always predicted the winner of what it refers to as "modern" presidential elections, although it also points out that the last poll taken on the 2004 election had Kerry and Bush tied. Bush went on to win by 2.1% of the vote. I am assuming that the 2004 Dispatch poll showing them tied was within the poll's margin of error. 

The Dispatch poll shows Cordray easily winning election as Ohio's Attorney General. It also shows casino gambling failing and it shows the regulations on payday lending being supported by Ohio voters. 

When you look at the internal numbers for the poll, it shows Obama leading in the Northeast, the Northwest, and what the poll calls the Central, parts of Ohio. It shows Obama losing in the Southeast, Southwest, and what it calls the West Central, parts of Ohio. 

Interestingly, for all the talk about how Obama would have trouble with working class white voters, the poll shows Obama winning every income group up to $70,000, and then losing every income group above that figure. The next group after $70,000, which is $70,000 to $80,000, Obama only loses by four points. 

Another interesting statistic is the difference between early voters and those who have not yet voted. Among those who reported already casting their absentee ballots, Obama leads by 14%, but among those who have not yet voted, he only leads by 2%. 

You can read the whole article here

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