Medina County Foreclosure Rates Continue to Climb

Judge James L. Kimbler reports that home foreclosures continued to climb during the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the first quarter of 2008. In the first quarter of 2008, there were 131 foreclosure cases assigned to Judge Kimbler's docket. In the first quarter of 2009, that number climbed to 149. 

Although January of 2009 saw fewer foreclosure cases assigned to Judge Kimbler's docket than January of 2008, the other two months of the first quarter both saw more foreclosure cases assigned. In January of 2008, the number of foreclosures assigned to Judge Kimbler's docket was 44, while in January of 2009, the number of such cases was 43. In February and March of 2008, the numbers were 39 and 48 respectively while in 2009 the numbers for the same month were 45 and 61. 

Medina City has Millions in Bank, Why Isn't It Building New Courthouse?

Here's an interesting story that appeared in the Medina County Gazette. According to this story, the City of Medina is carrying a balance of 34.1 million dollars, while the county is apparently losing revenue and threatening layoffs. So, given the fact that the City has a lot of money, and given the fact that the City insisted that the County build a new courthouse in downtown Medina, why isn't the City ponying up more money? 

When the County Commissioners were considering moving the Domestic Relations and Juvenile Courts away from the square, there was an anguished outcry from downtown business interests. "You can't do that", they cried. "That will hurt our square." (For those of you who don't know downtown Medina it does have a very nice central park surrounded by a business district dominated by buildings done in an 1890s style. It is quite charming.)

So, the Board of County Commissioners re-examined their plans and decided to expand the present county courthouse. Of course, this meant that the already cramped parking situation had also to be addressed. The solution to the parking problem was to build a new parking garage. So, instead of building a new courthouse at a location where there would be enough room for parking, or instead of buying an existing structure on the square, (and there were such structures available), the County Commissioners are planning on building a new addition to the present courthouse, building a new parking deck, all at considerable expense and all while they are talking about laying off county employees. 

Now, to be fair, the City of Medina, as well as the County Library, agreed to help pay for the cost of the parking deck, but, given the fact that it was downtown merchants who wanted the county courts to stay downtown, and given the fact that the City of Medina is apparently flush with cash, shouldn't the City had been asked to do more? 

Maybe one reason why the City wasn't asked to do more is that both the City Mayor and  the City Council President, as well as all three the County Commissioners are Republicans. So maybe the Commissioners weren't in the mood to do some tough negotiating with the City. Negotiating by telling the City to either pony up more money for the courthouse expansion, or the County was going to build a new courthouse at a location outside of Medina City limits. A location in the surrounding townships, and not only would there be a possibility of a loss of business revenue, but the City would also lose income tax revenue. 

None of that was done, however, and while the City brags about its 34.1 million dollar balance, county employees worry about losing their jobs.

Medina County's Republican Commissioners Talk Layoffs, Raise Sewer Rates, and Want to Build a New Courthouse

In the last few weeks, the Medina County Board of Commissioners, which has three Republicans and no Democrats, has announced that it is considering laying off county workers, raised sewer rates for Medina County residents using the county-run sewer system, and still wants to build a new courthouse. All four judges in the present county courthouse, who presumably would benefit by building this new courthouse, signed a letter urging the Commissioners to delay the construction because of the bad economy. Yet, the County Commissioners persist in going ahead with the construction.

Now, to be fair, one of the County Commissioners, Pat Geissman, has come out against building the new courthouse, at least at this time. She had a very good column in the Medina County Gazette spelling out her position. Interestingly, the other two Republican Commissioners, Steve Hambley and Sharon Ray, personally paid for an ad that told Gazette readers that they supported the new courthouse construction, but, unlike Geissman's column, didn't really give any reasons for their position other than to make statements with no analysis of why the statements were factually accurate.

Complicating the situation for the Commissioners is that a Republican Judge, John Lohn, has ordered the Board to fund his court at a certain level. If Lohn is successful in this effort, it could lead to other county officials seeking court orders to fund mandated services. All in all, it is a very interesting time in Medina County.

Filing Deadlines for Wadsworth and Brunswick City Elections

Because Wadsworth doesn't have a city charter,and because of a provision in Brunswick's city charter, candidates wanting to run for local office in both cities have to file by February 19, 2009. In Wadsworth, the city elections are partisan and, if there were two or more candidates running for their party's nomination for a particular position, there would be a primary in May. In Brunswick, although its elections are non-partisan, there could be a May primary if more than six candidates file petitions to run for the three council-at-large positions.

According to a sheet kept by the Medina County Board of Elections, Republicans have already picked up petitions for both Brunswick and Wadsworth city elections. Democrats have picked up petitions for Brunswick, but not yet for Wadsworth. Interestingly, the petitions for Wadsworth Republicans were picked up by Sharon Ray, one of the three Republican members of the Board of County Commissioners. This is not too surprising, however, since she is from Wadsworth and her first elected position was on Wadsworth City Council.

Although Brunswick is non-partisan, Republicans make up a majority of the City Council. There are currently two Republicans and one Democrat who are councilmen-at-large. With a little effort, Democrats could take all three positions in Brunswick.

Municipal elections in Wadsworth are always spirited. Wadsworth is interesting because it is the only political subdivision in Medina County that has partisan elections every year, either for city offices, for state and county offices, or for federal and county offices.

Time for Democratic Market Research in Medina County

No business would introduce a new product without doing some type of market research. The business would try to find out what the potential consumer of the product wanted, what features they liked, and didn't like. Yet, every year Medina County Democrats are running for local office, introducing new "products" if you will, without having any idea what the consumers of the product, ie, voters are looking for or what they want.

These candidates are spending a lot of money to run for office. Yet, that money is being spent blindly, without doing the basic research needed to understand the concerns of Medina County voters, the consumers of all the information that local candidates put out.

These consumers are definitely known. They are voters who reside in Medina County. Finding out what they want from local and county government wouldn't be that hard. Chances are that some of the market research has already been done by publicly funded agencies such as the Medina County Economic Development Corporation and other agencies.

If those agencies don't have the kind of data that candidates need, then the Medina County Democratic Party needs to commission a poll or a survey to find out what voters like and don't like about their county and local governments. What can't happen is for another election year to take place without the Medina County Democratic Party knowing what voters think.

Do 2008 Election Results Show Importance of Cable TV in Medina County?

In an earlier post this week, we pointed out that James Riley from Ashland County got more votes county-wide in the November 4, 2008 election than all but Holman, Obama, and Cordray. He did better in Medina County than Democratic candidates running for Commissioner, Treasurer, and Recorder, all of whom were from Medina County. The question is: Why?

One answer may be that he was higher up on the ballot. Voters came to his race before coming to the county-wide races for non-judicial offices. Ballot location, however, doesn't seem to be the answer. Even though the State Senator race was higher up on the ballot, not as many people voted in that election as voted in the races for other county-wide offices. In fact, the only race in Medina County for a non-judicial race that drew fewer votes was the race for Medina County Recorder.

What's interesting about Riley's race, though, was that according to a good friend of ours, the Democratic State Senate caucus ran ads for Riley on cable television systems in Medina County. None of the other local Democratic candidates were on cable television in Medina County.

In the judicial races, Judge Eve Belfance, running for the Ninth District Court of Appeals, also carried Medina County. In fact, she was the only Democratic candidate running in a contested Medina County judicial election to carry Medina County.

This means that with the exception of Dean Holman, Medina County Prosecutor, who was running in his sixth election, every Democratic candidate who won was on either cable television or broadcast television.

Further, the only Democratic candidate to receive under 40% of the vote, who was running for State Representative in the 69Th District, was up against an opponent who ran ads on cable television systems.

In 2010, when two county-wide elected positions will be on the ballot, Democratic candidates should seriously consider running cable television ads.

Medina County Vote Totals by Candidate

Based on the unofficial results for Medina County from the Board of Elections, below is the number of votes obtained by both Democrats and Republicans running county-wide in Medina County. Since Medina County is in two congressional districts and two state representative districts, we didn't show the results in those races.

While none of the Republicans ran better than the top of their ticket, Dean Holman, Medina County Prosecutor who was running for re-election, led the ticket for the Democrats in Medina County. Interestingly, James Riley, who was running for State Senator, got more votes in Medina County than any other Democrat, other than Obama, running for the first time in Medina County. Riley is from Ashland County.

Democrats

Holman
44755

Obama
39645

Cordray
38333

Riley
33678

Feron
33522

Courtney
33057

Todd
32626

Sharkey
30112

Republicans

McCain
46829

Hambley
46211

Burke
45023

Geissman
42655

Swedyk
41960

Gibbs
41686

Crites
34934

Russica
32753

Medina County Rep Loses Chance for Ohio House Speaker, May Become House MInority Leader

One of the surprises from the November 4, 2008 election was that Democrats now control the Ohio House. Although there had been talk in political circles that the Democrats were making a push to gain control, it is safe to say that most observers felt that they would fall short. Instead, they captured control by at least five votes, and it could go as high as seven, once the results of two close races are known.

The Democrats capturing control of the Ohio House means that Medina County won't see Representative William Batchelder become Speaker, at least not this coming term. Batchelder, who has over 30 years experience in the House, was vying with Representative Matt Dolan, son of the Indians' owner for Speaker.

There are reports, though, that Dolan has decided that he won't seek to become Minority Leader. Instead, it appears that Batchelder will become House Minority Leader. Interestingly, when Dolan told the Dispatch that he wasn't interested in becoming House Minority Leader, he didn't endorse Batchelder for that position. Dolan and Batchelder had been locked in what was described as a "bitter" battle for House Speaker. It appears that the bitterness is still there.

Early Voting Hours at Medina County BOE

The Medina County Board of Elections is located at:
4210 North Jefferson Street
Medina, OH 44258
Normal Office Hours: Monday - Friday 8:00 AM - 4:30 PM 2008

EARLY VOTING EXTENDED HOURS:
Monday, October 6: 8:30 am - 9:00 pm Tuesdays,
October 21 & 28: 8:00 am - 7:30 pm Thursdays,
October 23 & 30: 8:00 am - 7:30 pm Saturdays,
October 25 & November 1: 8:00 am - 12:00 pm
Phone: Medina: 330-722-9278
Brunswick/Hinckley: 330-225-7100
Ext. 9278 Wadsworth: 330-336-6657
Ext. 9278 TDD or TTY: 330-725-9123
Fax: 330-722-9299

The Irony in David Centner's Loss to Sheriff Hassinger

On Tuesday there were two contested primaries in Medina County, both of them in the Republican primary. One of them involved David Centner's campaign against Sheriff Neil Hassinger. Centner, a former Medina County Sheriff Deputy and a officer in a suburban Cuyahoga County police department, has been running for Medina County Sheriff almost since the last election in 2004. His ability to raise money was often talked about among both Republican and Democratic politicians. He was thought to have a strong campaign organization and was believed to be mounting a challenge to Sheriff Hassinger.

While on the evening of March 4, 2008, Centner's dream of becoming Sheriff, at least in 2009, came to an abrupt end. Centner lost to Hassinger by 5264 to 12504. In percentage terms that was a loss of 29.63% to 70.37%. It is hard to see the Republican Party turning around and nominating Centner in 2012, assuming that Hassinger doesn't seek re-election after such a convincing rejection by Republican voters this year.

The irony referred to in our entry title is that supposedly David Centner was a Democrat, but switched registration several years ago. Had he run for Sheriff as a Democrat he would be the Democratic nominee today, and wouldn't have had to face Neil Hassinger in a contested Republican primary. Would he have won as a Democrat? Who knows, but there is evidence that 2008 is going to be a Democratic year.

To be clear, we haven't verified that Centner was a Democrat and switched parties. We have, though, heard this from more than one person. We have also seen a computerized voting history of Centner, though, showing that he has only voted in one Republican primary since 1998. This means that he skipped the Republican primary in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, before he voted a Republican ballot in 2006. If that computerized history is true, it obviously indicates that Centner wasn't a very committed Republican.

By way of contrast, Neil Hassinger voted in all of the Republican primaries listed above. Centner's voting history suggests that he was not a very partisan Republican. Not a good trait to have in a contested Republican primary when your opponent has been the successful Republican nominee for Sheriff three times prior to the 2008 Republican primary.

These are our parting words: If you are a Democrat, or for that matter a Republican, and want to run for political office, maybe you are better off sticking with your own party, and congratulations to Sheriff Neil Hassinger on a resounding victory.

Medina County Democratic Party Won/Loss Record in County Campaigns 1970-2007

Below is information concerning the won/loss record of the Medina County Democratic Party in elections since 1970. Although Medina County is viewed as a Republican strong-hold, it is possible for local Democratic candidates to win elections and successfully defend those offices in re-election campaigns. Indeed, since 1970 only two Democrats have been defeated in re-election bids and one of those, Ferris Brown, had been re-elected twice as county auditor before becoming county commissioner. So while Medina County is seen as a pro-Republican county, it might be more accurate to describe it as a pro-incumbent county.

As the information below shows, the 1980s were the most successful decade for the Medina County Democratic Party since 1970. From 1980 to 1990, the Medina County Democratic Party picked up four county offices and elected three judges.

In the 1990s, however, the Democratic Party lost re-election campaigns involving both seats on the Board of County Commissioners and also lost the Sheriff's office. During the 1990s, the Medina County Democratic Party only picked up one office held by a Republican, a Common Pleas Judgeship won by Judge Kimbler following Judge Baird's retirement. That win, however, was offset by the loss of the Common Pleas Court held by Judge Cross when she retired in 1998.

In 2000, Judge Mary Kovack picked up the Medina County Domestic Relations Judgeship, defeating an appointed Republican incumbent. Since 2000, no Democrat has lost re-election to a county office or as judge, but the Medina County Democratic Party has not defeated an elected Republican incumbent since 1992.

Democrats who defeated elected Republican incumbents have had a harder time holding the office they won than Democrats who defeated appointed Republican incumbents. Former Sheriff Neil Gray defeated an elected incumbent Republican in 1976, but resigned from office in 1979. Former Greg Happ defeated an elected incumbent Republican in 1980, but was then defeated in 1984. Ferris Brown, who had defeated an elected Republican incumbent for Commissioner, after winning two re-election campaigns for Auditor, was then defeated in 1996, although by a very narrow margin. The only Medina County Democrat who has defeated an elected Republican incumbent and then won re-election is County Prosecutor Dean Holman, who has been re-elected four times, twice without opposition.

Democrats who defeated appointed Republican incumbents, however, have been much more successful at retaining office. Such Democrats are John Happ, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election twice; Ferris Brown, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election as County Auditor twice; and Judge Kovack, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election in 2006.

From all of this, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. Democrats who are elected to either a county-wide office or as judge in Medina County can, and usually do, win re-election.

2. Democrats who defeat appointed Republican incumbents have an easier time winning re-election than Democrats who defeat elected Republican incumbents.

3. The hardest offices to retain for Democrats have been County Commissioner and, prior to Dean Holman's election in 1980, County Prosecutor.

4. The easiest office to retain have been judicial offices. Since 1987, no incumbent Democratic judge has been defeated for re-election and one such judge, Judge James Kimbler, has changed courts, going from the Wadsworth Municipal Court to the Medina County Common Pleas Court in 1996.

Democratic Victories for County Offices 1970-1980

County Commissioner-John Oberholtzer in 1970 and re-elected in 1974
County Sheriff-Neil Gray in 1976, but resigned in 1979.

Democratic Controlled County Offices & Courts in 1980

Sheriff-John Ribar who was appointed in 1979 when Neil Gray resigned.

Democratic Victories in County and Judicial Offices 1980-1994

Sheriff-John Ribar in 1980, 1984, 1998, and 1992.
Commissioner-John Happ in 1980, 1984, and 1988.
Commissioner-Ferris Brown in 1992.
Prosecutor-Greg Happ in 1980.
Prosecutor-Dean Holman in 1988 and 1992.
Auditor-Ferris Brown in 1982, 1986, and 1990.
Auditor-Mike Kovack in 1994 and 1998.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge-Judith Cross in 1986 and 1992.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge-James Kimbler in 1987 and 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge-Dale Chase in 1987 and 1993.

Democratic Controlled Offices Lost 1980-1993

Prosecutor in 1984.
County Commissioner in 1992.

Democratic Controlled Offices Successfully Defended 1980-1993

Medina County Commissioner in 1984 and 1988.
Medina County Sheriff in 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992.
Medina County Auditor in 1986 and 1990.
Medina County Prosecutor in 1988.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge in 1992.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge in 1987 and 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge in 1993.

Democratic Controlled County Offices & Courts in 1993

Commissioner Ferris Brown
Prosecutor Dean Holman
General Division Judge Judith Cross
Auditor Mike Kovack
Sheriff John Ribar
Coroner Neil Grabenstetter
Wadsworth Judge James Kimbler
Medina Judge Dale Chase

Democratic Controlled Offices & Courts in 2007

Prosecutor
Auditor
Coroner
General Division Judge
Domestic Relations Judge
Medina Judge

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Won 1992-2007

Commissioner-1992
DR Court Judge-2000
Common Pleas Court, General Division-1996

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Lost 1992-2007

Commissioner 1992
Commissioner 1996
Sheriff 1996
Wadsworth Judge 1997

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Successfully Defended 1992-2007

Auditor
Prosecutor
Common Pleas General Division Judge
Domestic Relations Judge
Medina Judge

Democratic Elected Officials Who Won Re-Election 1974 to 2008

Medina County Commissioner John Oberholtzer in 1974
Medina County Prosecutor Dean Holman-re-elected in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004
Medina County Sheriff John Ribar in 1984, 1988, and 1992.
Medina County Coroner Neil Grabenstetter in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. (Dr. Grabenstetter in running unopposed in 2008.)
Medina County Commissioner John Happ in 1984 and 1988.
Medina County Auditor Ferris Brown in 1986 and 1990.
Medina County Auditor Mike Kovack in 1998, 2002, and 2006.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge Judy Cross in 1992.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge James Kimbler in 2002 and 2008. (Judge Kimbler is unopposed in the 2008 election.)
Medina County Domestic Relations Judge Mary Kovack in 2006.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge James Kimbler in 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge Dale Chase in 1993, 1999, and 2005.

Number of times that Democratic officials have been re-elected to county offices and courts: 28.

Democratic County Officials Who Defeated Republican Incumbents in Elections for County Offices & Judicial Offices from 1976 to 2007

Neil Gray-elected Sheriff in 1976.
John Happ-elected Commissioner in 1980.
Greg Happ-elected Prosecutor in 1980.
Ferris Brown-elected Auditor in 1982.
Dean Holman-elected Prosecutor in 1988.
Ferris Brown-elected Commissioner in 1992.
Mary Kovack-elected Domestic Relations Judge in 2000.

John Boccieri Easily Wins Medina County

State Senator John Boccieri easily won Medina County in his contested race for the Democratic nomination for Representative from the 16th Congressional District. Boccieri carried Medina County by a margin of 10,692 votes to 5,921 votes. This vote translated into a margin of 64.36% to 35.64%. When looking at the State Senator's results, it should be kept in mind that the not all of Medina County is in the 16th Congressional District. The county is split between two Congressional Districts, the 13th and the 16th.

State Senator Boccieri has been working hard in Medina County ever since he announced that he was running for the seat. His primary opponent, Mary M. Cirelli, on the other hand, to our knowledge never appeared in the county.

MCDAC congratulates State Senator Boccieri on his impressive Medina County showing!

Clinton Wins Medina County in Primary

Hillary Clinton took Medina County last night, winning the country by a margin of 19845 to 12319. In percentage terms, as between Obama and Clinton, Clinton won the county by a margin of 61.6% to 38.4%.

Medina County is in two Congressional districts, the 13th and the 16th. The 13th district part of Medina County is composed of Hinckley, Brunswick, Brunswick Hills Township, and Liverpool Township. Clinton won that part of the county by a vote of 64.61% to 33.95%. She won the 16th district part of the county by a margin of 58.59% to 39.72%. (The Medina County Board of Elections counted votes for John Edwards in both parts of the county.)

This is a pretty impressive win for Clinton in Medina County considering that in two presidential campaigns her husband never carried Medina County.

Medina County Dem Vote for President Way Ahead of GOP Vote

The results are in for the Medina County Democratic and Republican primaries. The results are not good for the GOP.

In the Democratic primary for President the total number of Democrats voting was 32,687. The vote in the Republican primary for President was 18764. This means that almost 14,000 more voters took Democratic ballots than took Republican ballots.

Another way to look at it is that of the 44,809 voters who voted in either the Democratic or Republican primaries, almost 64% of them voted in the Democratic primary. This bodes well for the Democratic nominee in November.

Medina Dem Explains Why He Supports Hillary Clinton

It is now 12 hours until the polls open in Ohio , and have I made up my mind who I will vote for in the primary? Finally, yes. Also, I am grateful that at long last the people of Ohio will play a role in choosing the nominees for a change!

I will take a Democratic ballot for President, and this choice is easy. Either Dem will end the war in Iraq : how fast is an unknown, but, McCain would keep us there “100 years, if necessary.” Now, this is to be taken seriously, as we now will begin the 6th year of occupation in a foreign land. While one can find good qualities about John Mc, I am further upset in the matter of his whoring (as a classmate on the east coast describes his behavior of the past 4+ years) for the Bush adm. for more than that period. I believe they bought him off without $$ to keep him out of the race in ’04. Further, the fact that he spent a long 6+ years as a POW does NOT qualify him, nor aid him, in this quest for the presidency.

I am ignoring Huckleberry, who doesn’t appear to even believe in gravity. Ron Paul? I agree with his Iraq policy, and other military policies which, simply stated, (as Paul simply states everything) involved uninvolving ourselves militarily in near every other foreign country, some of his finance positions, and some of his positions on making the federal government smaller, but most of his positions are so simplistic that he must be dismissed out-of-hand.

Positions of Obama and Clinton are similar, other than the fact that Obama has promised everyone a little bit of everything, and he cannot deliver all that he has stated even if Congress gave him the green light, which they will not. Little bears arguing about in that matter, so it will come down to a difference of experience or a fresh approach: Does a new face such as Obama overcome his lack of experience? Does ‘same old’ politics make for a “same old” policy? There have been many “fresh faces” in DC, if you mean outside the beltway, which Obama is only part way out there. He will have the people behind him, clamoring for change. And Clinton ’s partisanship, pettiness couple with anger, stubbornness and lack of compromise could derail anything good should she be elected.

Obama has the momentum, as I write this. And, we know that momentum and timing can be everything in politics. And, as the campaign goes on, he becomes more and more knowledgeable about the world at large, not to mention the good old USA . But, as I age more, I know in my heart that experience is the deciding factor. And, believe me, there will be change.

I will cast my ballot for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Bryan Adams

TODD CAMPAIGN TO HOST SPAGHETTI DINNER IN WADSWORTH MARCH 8

Mike Todd, Democratic candidate for Medina County Treasurer, is hosting a fundraising dinner for his campaign on Saturday, March 8th. The Spaghetti dinner will take place at the Masonic Temple on 660 High Street in Wadsworth. Guests will be served from 6 to 8 PM.

The event will feature spaghetti and meatballs, salad, garlic bread, beverages, and dessert for all attendees. Mike Todd, and a number of Medina County elected officials and dignitaries, will address the audience. Tickets cost $15 per person, and are available in advance through the Todd campaign (checks made payable to Todd for Ohio, P.O. Box 343, Medina, OH 44258), or at the door the day of the event.

Mike Todd’s campaign for Medina County Treasurer has generated an unprecedented amount of excitement and support so early in the cycle. Mike’s aggressive and comprehensive door-to-door campaign has been underway for over a month, and field operations have begun in cities, villages and townships throughout the county. Mike Todd’s commitment to restore accountability and integrity to the Treasurer’s office is winning him praise throughout Medina County from Democrats, Independents and Republicans.

13Th Congressional District Democratic Caucus Held in Brunswick

While southern Medina County Democrats were busy attending the 16Th Congressional District Caucus in Stark County, Medina County was hosting the 13Th Congressional District Caucus in Brunswick, Ohio. The event in Brunswick was held at the Brunswick High School and was co-ordinated by Pat McNamara, who is a Medina County Democrat and an at-large Brunswick City Council member. The Medina County Gazette ran a story on the caucus in its January 4, 2008 edition.

The caucus was held on January 3, 2008 and the Brunswick High School Performing ARts Center was chosen because of its central location in the 16Th Congressional District. This is believed to be the first time that such a caucus was held by the Democratic Party in Medina County. Congratulations to Pat McNamara for co-ordinating this event!

Does Slowdown in Home Construction Mean a Recession is Coming?

The Cleveland Plain Dealer had some stories during the last week about the slowdown in new home construction. One article dealt with the fact that new home starts in 2007 were the lowest in the last 12 years. Another article dealt with the fact that every county in the Cleveland-Akron metropolitan area has seen a significant reduction in new home sales since 2000. In northeast Ohio, the rate of new home construction has fallen by 31% during the first nine months of 2007 compared to the first nine months of 2006 and by 45% when compared to the first nine months of 2005.

In a graphic accompanying the article in the print edition, there was a chart showing the number of building permits issued for new homes in seven counties, including Medina County. According to the chart, in 2000 there were 1509 new homes built in Medina County. This year there have been only 559 new homes constructed, a drop of 62.9%. Medina County ranked ahead of Geauga, Lake, and Portgage counties, but behind Lorain, Cuyahoga, and Summit, all of which are appreciably bigger than Medina County. This slowdown is very unusual for Medina County that usually ranks in the top five counties of the state for new home construction.

Given the fact that home construction employs a lot of people, this drop in new home construction will be felt by all of us in Northeast Ohio, not just workers in the building trades. Car dealers, applicance dealers, furniture dealers, and others who sell goods to the owners of new homes or to the workers who build new homes will be affected by this slowdown in new home construction. Of course, the GOP answer will be to cut taxes and drive up the deficit even higher.

Medina County Voting Patterns by Age Groups

Medina County has 12,821 voters who are between 18-30 years of age. In 2006, 3,626 of them voted and 9,195 didn't vote. Those figures translate to a turn-out of 28.2%. What is interesting is to compare those figures with the age group of 31-50 year olds. In that age group there are 40,370 Medina County voters and 18,095 didn't vote in 2006. That translates into a turn-out of 55.2%, or almost 30 points greater than the 18030 age group.

Neither one of the above two age groups, however, did as good as Medina County voters age 51-65. In that age group there are 29,160 voters and only 8,144 didn't vote in the 2006 election. That translates into a turn-out of 72%. In the 66-86 age group, which did even better, there are 12,658 voters and only 3205 didn't vote, which is a turn-out of 75%.

The interesting things for Medina County Democrats is that based on the 2004 CNN exit poll for Ohio, the group that votes the least is the most likely to vote Democratic. In 2004 the CNN exit poll showed that voters in the 18-29 year old bracket voted for Kerry over Bush by 56-42%, and was the only age group in Ohio to favor Kerry over Bush. The worst age group, by the way, was 65 and older which split for Bush over Kerry by 57 to 43%.

Assuming that the CNN exit poll results for Ohio in general reflect what happened in Medina County in 2004, Medina County Democrats need to focus more attention on younger voters. Every 1000 additional votes out of that age group should result in a Democratic gain of 140 votes over Repubicans. Thus, increasing the turn-out by 5,000 votes in that age group would be worth a net gain of 700 votes. That may seem like a relatively small number until you start doing that all across Ohio. Then the number starts getting more impressive.

Medina County Off-Year Voting Statistics

According to the Medina County Board of Elections website 37,414 voters voted in the 2007 general election. The BOE also shows the county as having 124,107 voters. Based on those two figures, the turnout was 30.1%. The figure for the total number of voters is misleading, however.

There are 23,040 registered voters in Medina County who didn't vote in either the 2004 or 2006 general elections. There are also 74,247 who voted in either of those two elections. Assuming that voters who have missed voting in both a presidential and gubernatorial elections aren't going to vote in an off-year election, it makes sense to take them out of the equation when figuring the turn-out for 2007.

If you remove the 23,040 "missing" voters from the equation, you get a voter universe of 101,067. Using that figure, the turn-out increases to 37.1%. If you calculate the turn-out based on the voters who actually voted in either the 2004 or 2006 general elections, the turn-out increases to 50.3%.

What's interesting about off-year elections is that both political parties aren't seeing a very large percentage of their voters voting in them, if 2005 is any guide. In 2004 Democratic voters in Medina County numbered 16,195 while Republican voters numbered 16,416. In 2006 Democratic voters numbered 15,207 and Republican voters numbered 15,555.

In 2005, however, the turn-out for Democratic voters dropped to 4019 and the turn-out for Republican voters dropped to 3258. If either or both political parties had turned out their voters anywhere close the 2004 or 2006 general elections, the results would probably have been dramatically different.