Sunday, December 30, 2007

Does Slowdown in Home Construction Mean a Recession is Coming?

The Cleveland Plain Dealer had some stories during the last week about the slowdown in new home construction. One article dealt with the fact that new home starts in 2007 were the lowest in the last 12 years. Another article dealt with the fact that every county in the Cleveland-Akron metropolitan area has seen a significant reduction in new home sales since 2000. In northeast Ohio, the rate of new home construction has fallen by 31% during the first nine months of 2007 compared to the first nine months of 2006 and by 45% when compared to the first nine months of 2005.

In a graphic accompanying the article in the print edition, there was a chart showing the number of building permits issued for new homes in seven counties, including Medina County. According to the chart, in 2000 there were 1509 new homes built in Medina County. This year there have been only 559 new homes constructed, a drop of 62.9%. Medina County ranked ahead of Geauga, Lake, and Portgage counties, but behind Lorain, Cuyahoga, and Summit, all of which are appreciably bigger than Medina County. This slowdown is very unusual for Medina County that usually ranks in the top five counties of the state for new home construction.

Given the fact that home construction employs a lot of people, this drop in new home construction will be felt by all of us in Northeast Ohio, not just workers in the building trades. Car dealers, applicance dealers, furniture dealers, and others who sell goods to the owners of new homes or to the workers who build new homes will be affected by this slowdown in new home construction. Of course, the GOP answer will be to cut taxes and drive up the deficit even higher.

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