Throughts on "Tea Party" in Medina Public Square by a Dem Attendee

The following is a letter to the editor of Medina County Common Sense. Medina County Common Sense is an online newspaper that can be read at www.medinacountycommonsense.com.

After witnessing the results of decades of tax cuts for the rich and stagnant wages for most employees as well as the crippling growth of government and private debt, we can say: Been there and done that.

Between 1979 and 2003 according to the Congressional Research Service, the income from wealth for the top 1% (interest, dividends, rent and capital gains) has risen from 37.8% of the pie to 57.5%. Today, it is clearly even higher. If that is not the definition of greed what is?

Wealth is being redistributed upwards in America, especially as the government with an employer-biased National Labor Relations Board undercut the ability of American workers to bargain collectively. We live in a society that rewards wealth and punishes work. A society created by the GOP and corporate Democrats.

When GOP officials talk of a free market economy they are talking about a government of, by and for the rich. They love the phrase "free market" because it conjures up pictures of the inevitable flow of the tides as the moon tugs on us. The fact is that a "free market" economy is an economy run by the financial sector for its ends: to create asset bubbles and dept dependency.

With each passing year Americans have and less ownership of their homes in the "loanership" society they are creating. For the first time they now own less than half their homes. In other words, the banks and the financial class now own more and more of our homes. Of course, personal debt is also at a record high.

The FIRE (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) sector does not create real jobs in a real economy. Their jobs are strictly at the gaming tables of Credit Default Swaps and derivatives based on other dervatives based on other derivatives. (These three level gambling games actually exist! See A Demon of Our Design by Richard Bookstaber for the details.)

Successful economies are not Cuba's nor the recent American debacle. They are mixed economies where business and government each play an important - and necessary - role. I am a progressive who believe in market forces. I am also a progressive who sees hugely efficient, well-run economicl safety nets like Social Security and Medicare.

Unfortunately, the brand of extremism on display at the TEA rally has little concern for those safety nets, although I did see one sign:"Some help, yes, entitlements, No." While I would love to have had a discussion with the sign-holder about which programs to abolish, which people we should allow to suffer and die, I have learned a lesson. Most of these nice, well-meaning people are clueless as to what their slogans actually mean in practice.

Why do you think that their leaders almost never mention specific safety net programs? Could it be because they would be exposed as un-Christian, un-patriotic Americans? When these people are asked John Oliver (British correspondent for the Daily Show) type follow up questions they become agitated and frequently angry to the point of becoming violent. Clearly, many of the people at the rally were anxious about our economic times. Sadly, almost pathetically, they didn't recognize their own party's hand in all this.

This was not a meeting to assign accountablity for decades of failed GOP-plutocratic propaganda parading as policy. It was time to lambast an administration which has still not reached 100 days.

Incidentally, there are plenty of reasons to lacerate President Obama for continuing Bush's TARP program as Paul Krugman, James Galbraith and Michael Hudson and lots of other great Ph.D. economists do. But to scream at this administration for lowering taxes on nearly everyone in the crowd and trying to stimulate the economy seemed surrealistic.

But sadly, the rally was real. The puppet-masters in America's board rooms had summoned them to their grassroots-fabrication knowing of their inchoate anxieties about nearly everything - and they had come.

About the market speakers called "free." God did not make the capital gains tax 15% which is less than the Social Security and Medicare taxes on the first dollars every American earns. The capital gains tax and the lowering of the top marginal rates from 91% to the 30s did not occur because of planetary forces. It occured because the rich, the contributor class, made it happen with their minions in Congress - including plenty of corporate Dems. Their Gollumesque cries of "My precious, my precious, it's all mine" simply don't mesh with "We the people in order to form a more perfect society do hereby...." They just don't get it that we are our brother's keeper, that what happens to the least of us should matter to all of us philosophy and policies.

Do they not hear the gospel messages on Sunday? They don't even have a clue of how to answer this simple question: How is it that we are the only industrial society on earth not to have national health care. Perhaps because they haven't suffered from a lack of health care (I assume) the problem simply doesn't exist. They live in the bubble of Medina and the rest of the world is just so remote - and frequently - distasteful.

Incidentally, I did see a sign about "Government Greed" at the rally but none about the private greed mentioned over 200 times in the Bible. Nothing about a hedge funds manager earning $3.7 billion in a year and paying a lower tax rate, for most of it, than those who clean our bedpans.

It was odd that a crowd that clearly believes in personal responsibilty and working hard (I assume) helps a political party who policies punish work and reward wealth. Of course they try to sell the myth that if you tax the rich they will stop creating jobs. Did you know that the rich are a fragile group? That when we increase their taxes from 35 to 39% they become so disheartened and disconsolate they shut down their business. If they can't keep most of their money they simply see no reason to go on. If they make another $30 million and only keep $17, there is clearly no incentive to continue.
Remember, however, that the poor are very different than the rich: they need to be prodded to work. If we keep the minimum wage low, their hunger and physical needs will help "motivate" them to work.

Of course, rally speakers I heard said nothing about torture, aggressive wars, military waste, Social Security - especially private accounts, national health care, unemployment insurance, skyrocketing tuition costs for state schools. the budget problems of all local governments, the repeal of Glass-Steagall or the killing of the financial cops on Wall Street and Washington, what happened over the last eight years to cause this collapsel. And I heard nothing about the class warfare waged agains the middle class for decades. In fact, I don't believe I heard about anything good that taxes produce.

Nothing about the roads that got them there, the Park where they held the rally, the police protection, the education that some of them received.I never heard President Franklin Delano Roosevelt mentioned. The other Democratic president who had to save the "banksters" from their wretched self-dealing. A "socialist" who clearly saved capitalism and put our economy on a sound track for over 50 years until his reforms were unraveled by the money changers. Remember that FDR was the other Democratic president they called a fascist and socialist.

It would have been wonderful to hear someone recite part of FDR's first inaugural:
"The money changers have fled their high seat in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of our restoration lies in the extent to which we appy social values more noble than mere monetary profit."

Unfortunately, as one observer wrote, the money changers returned to Washington the following day on March 5, 1933. And so it was on January 21, 2009. And clearly it is up to Democrats to pressure our president to reject the advice of the Rubins, Geithners and Summers. They and the GOP Federal Reserve (See James Galbraith's research on how the Fed manipulates interest rates for GOP candidates) should be some of the last people we listen to. Saving THEIR economic system is not the same as saving a just economic system. The system (banks) they are putting on life support is one that has literally robbed American families of the fruits of their labors. It is time for an economy (and, of course, tax policy) that actually works to keep capitalism vibrant and not to preserve the privileges of the few.

Parenthetical: One well-intentioned minister talked of our Christian founders like Thomas Jefferson. They also had a Jefferson banner attached to the Gazebo. I guess he never heard of Jefferson's redacted bible. Redacted as in taking out all the miracles and leaving in the social message.

There were good and serious people at the rally who believe in self-reliance and that is a good thing. The problem is that these same people do not believe in self-reliance when bad things happen to them. They are more than happy that Social Security disability exists. Self-reliance is great when you are healthy because you can, with hard work, acquire money. But when the trials of Job come, you wish to live in a more compassionate society than the one the rally-holders envision. One with national health care.Some of the beliefs of the rally holders and GOP apologists in the media like Charlie Gibson are simply wrong.

Recently, the Plain Dealer ran an op-ed piece that said: "When taxes rise, revenues fall." Many apparently believe, despite Congressional Budget Office (CBO) evidence to the contrary, that less means more.. The "evidence" that cutting taxes actually increases them has a thin underpinning. When capital gains taxes were cut, revenue did go up for a while. Over time, of course, revenue drops. That why the non-partisan CBO indicates significant capital gains tax losses from permanently cutting the tax rate on them.

Why do you think that capital gains taxes did increase after a tax cut - at least for a short period? The CBO and others have pointed out the obvious: people rushed to realize their capital gains when they had the break. Capital gains only occur when you decide to take them. The timing is in your hands when to sell your stocks or other appreciated asset. It was simply a matter of timing and that over time, the Treasury would lose money.

Incidentally, I do believe taxes can be so high that people struggle to evade them with tax shelters etc. That is not the case when you are making small changes in the 30 percent area and not returning the top rates to the 90+%.

The Greed Party has only one issue left: taxes. After doing their best to destroy capitalism and our standing in the world no one listens to them about much of anything else. Their problem though is this syllogism they make: 1) The rich pay almost all the taxes 2) We must lower taxes

Conclusion: The only possible conclusion is that the TEA party was all about lowering taxes on the rich. That is a fair plutocratic proposition but it is rejected by many of the rich as well as the vast majority of the population. Of course, the vast bulk of the people at the TEA party (I attended and took copious notes) had no clue that they were working against not just the economic interests of consumer and industrial capitalism but against their own narrow economic self interests.

That in a society where over 70% of GDP is consumer spending that consumers (the middle class) must have enough to spend. They had merely been summoned by the economic elites to do their work, just as they do in their companies: for no or substandard wages.

At the end of the rally state representative William Batchelder III spoke. Clearly, the organizer and thinker behind the rally spoke last. The one with personal connections to Newt and other aspiring Republicans on the national stage. The chair person of the Ohio 1976 and 1980 Ohio Steering Committee for Ronald Reagan. As he spoke you recognized that he was facile, glib, skillful. I would guess he had 30 IQ points on the other speakers and 50 on the median score in the audience.

He made the point that the rally was not partisan and made a perfunctory attack on George W. Bush for not vetoing some spending bills.His most memorable line was: " “The answer to our economic problems will come from the private sector.”

First, I thought of George Washington's "doctors" applying more leeches to him on his deathbed. Clearly, the Ohio representative believed that we did not allow the banksters enough freedom to loot and pillage. Then I though of a more apt analogy for our sinking economy: the Exon Valdes.

There was the best and brightest of the Medina Republican Party standing on the bridge of the Valdes with Captain Joseph Hazelwood (George W. Bush) yelling: "Maintain course. Full speed ahead. Things are fine"Things are not fine and until the GOP explains the mistakes they had a hand in they will have zero credibility with the American voter.

Signed:

A Democratic rally attendee

Medina County's Republican Commissioners Talk Layoffs, Raise Sewer Rates, and Want to Build a New Courthouse

In the last few weeks, the Medina County Board of Commissioners, which has three Republicans and no Democrats, has announced that it is considering laying off county workers, raised sewer rates for Medina County residents using the county-run sewer system, and still wants to build a new courthouse. All four judges in the present county courthouse, who presumably would benefit by building this new courthouse, signed a letter urging the Commissioners to delay the construction because of the bad economy. Yet, the County Commissioners persist in going ahead with the construction.

Now, to be fair, one of the County Commissioners, Pat Geissman, has come out against building the new courthouse, at least at this time. She had a very good column in the Medina County Gazette spelling out her position. Interestingly, the other two Republican Commissioners, Steve Hambley and Sharon Ray, personally paid for an ad that told Gazette readers that they supported the new courthouse construction, but, unlike Geissman's column, didn't really give any reasons for their position other than to make statements with no analysis of why the statements were factually accurate.

Complicating the situation for the Commissioners is that a Republican Judge, John Lohn, has ordered the Board to fund his court at a certain level. If Lohn is successful in this effort, it could lead to other county officials seeking court orders to fund mandated services. All in all, it is a very interesting time in Medina County.

Examples of Republican Incompetence at Three Levels of Government

Examples of Republican incompetence at the national level: the Iraq War based on false premises, response to Hurricane Katrina, federal deficits, and lack of oversight of the banking industry.

Example of Republican incompetence at the state level: cutting income tax rates by 21% over four years jeopardizing the state's finances.

Examples of Republican incompetence at the local level in Medina County : building a new courthouse while threatening the laying off county employees resulting in a Republican judge issuing a court order against an all Republican Board of County Commissioners.

Greater Medina Chamber of Commerce Sponsors Candidate Training

This appears on the website of the Greater Medina Chamber of Commerce:

ARE YOU INTERESTED IN RUNNING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE?
INFORMATION SESSION FOR POTENTIAL CANDIDATES

The Greater Medina Chamber of Commerce will host an Information Session for anyone in the County who would like more information about running for public office, whether as a candidate or to support or work on an election campaign. The one-hour meeting will be held on Wednesday, January 28, starting at 8:00 a.m. at the Medina Community Recreation Center.

In announcing the program, Greater Medina Chamber of Commerce President Debra Lynn-Schmitz pointed out that this is a non-partisan program. “Attendees do not have identify themselves or what position they are considering,” said Lynn-Schmitz. “We simply want to provide an opportunity to learn more for anyone who might be interested in public service, regardless of their political affiliation or the office in which they are interested.”

Medina County Commissioner Sharon Ray will be on hand for a brief presentation explaining what a potential candidate should consider. Ray will also be available for a Question and Answer session at the end of the meeting.

( Editor's Note: Even though the listed speakers are Republicans, we think that local Dems running for office in 2009 should attend this event. You can register online by going here.)

New Republican Group Formed in Medina County

There is a new Republican group active in Medina County.  It is called Recharge Medina County. Its website can be viewed here. There are two things that are interesting about this group. 

The first is that it doesn't use the word "Republican" in its title. We wonder if that is because the word Republican has become toxic, even here in reliably red Medina County. 

The second is that since the Republicans have all three county commissioner seats, control the mayor's office of all three cities in Medina County, and have a majority of elected officials at the local and county level, what exactly are they recharging? Their own party? Medina County? 

To recharge something implies that it is dead, like recharging a battery. If there is no life in Medina County government, then maybe the solution isn't to re-elect more Republican, maybe the solution is to elect a real difference, IE, Democrats. Just a thought. 

Medina County Vote Totals by Candidate

Based on the unofficial results for Medina County from the Board of Elections, below is the number of votes obtained by both Democrats and Republicans running county-wide in Medina County. Since Medina County is in two congressional districts and two state representative districts, we didn't show the results in those races.

While none of the Republicans ran better than the top of their ticket, Dean Holman, Medina County Prosecutor who was running for re-election, led the ticket for the Democrats in Medina County. Interestingly, James Riley, who was running for State Senator, got more votes in Medina County than any other Democrat, other than Obama, running for the first time in Medina County. Riley is from Ashland County.

Democrats

Holman
44755

Obama
39645

Cordray
38333

Riley
33678

Feron
33522

Courtney
33057

Todd
32626

Sharkey
30112

Republicans

McCain
46829

Hambley
46211

Burke
45023

Geissman
42655

Swedyk
41960

Gibbs
41686

Crites
34934

Russica
32753

Medina County Re-Elects All Incumbents

An examination of the 2008 Medina County election results shows that Medina County continues its pro-incumbent bias, as well as the importance of name recognition. Every incumbent on the ballot run re-election in Medina County regardless of political party. Every challenger to an incumbent lost, regardless of political party, sometimes by more votes, sometimes by less votes, but they all lost.

Medina County hasn't seen an incumbent defeated in a non-judicial election since 1996, when Republican Steve Hambley defeated Democrat Ferris Brown for County Commissioner. Comparing the 12 years between 1996 and 2008 to the 12 years between 1984 to 1996 shows an interesting contrast. In judicial elections in that same period, one incumbent was defeated. While it is always difficult to defeat an incumbent, in the past it hasn't been quite as difficult as it has been lately.

In the 12 year period between 1984 to 1996, four incumbent office-holders were defeated, two Democrats and two Republicans. Two were county commissioners and two were county prosecutors. Interestingly, three of the incumbents who were defeated were only in office one term before being replaced. In fact, in 1996, the one incumbent who was defeated had only been in his position for one term, although he had first been elected to county office in 1982.

One of the reasons why it has been difficult to defeat incumbents is that three of Medina County's officeholders have been in office for at least 12 years, and in one case, for twenty years. This longevity in office gives them a lot of opportunities to get their name out in the public and to become known. In Medina County name recognition is more important than party identification. An office-holder is better positioned to win an election as a Democratic incumbent than as a Republican challenger, as Medina County Prosecutor Dean Holman proved last night.

You can view the Medina County election results here.

Medina Gazette's Articles on Medina County's "Movers and Shakers" Looks Like a List of GOP Who's Who

The Medina County Gazette is running a series on the supposed top-ten "movers and shakers" in Medina County. This list was supposedly generated by taking an "informal survey of community and government leaders" in Medina County. So far, and we have just had profiles of numbers 10 and nine, but this list is looking like a Who's Who of the Medina County Repubican Party.

Number ten was Jim Renacci, former Republican Mayor of Wadsworth, and number nine is Don Simmons, former Republican Party Chair and former Republican Medina County Commissioner. Want to bet what the other eight will have in common?

Growth in Medina County Democratic Vote in Presidential Primaries

As the chart to the left shows, the Medina County Democratic vote has grown dramatically over the last three presidential primaries, especially when compared to the Republican vote in the same period.

The Democratic vote in the 2008 Ohio presidential primary in Medina County was 3.90 times the 2000 presidential primary vote and it was 2.40 times the 2004 presidential vote. Over the course of that eight year period, the Democratic vote went up by 24,574 votes. The biggest increase was in the period between 2004 and 2008 when the Democratic vote in the presidential primary went from 13,836 to 33,283, an increase of almost 20,000 voters.

Does these numbers mean that Medina County is turning "blue"? No, but it is certainly becoming more and more purple. It also means that the Democratic Party can be competitive with the Republicans in gubernatorial elections, and possibly even in presidential elections.

During that same period, the Republican vote went down in 2004, as compared to 2000, and then back up in 2008, but nearly as much as the Democratic vote. In 2000, 18590 Medina County voters took Republican ballots in the March primary. In 2004, that figure declined to 12,109, and in 2008, it went up to 18,994, an increase of only 404 between 2000 and 2008.

Of course, to a certain extent, these figures represent the fact that in 2004 and 2008, there were contested Democratic primaries for president in Ohio. Among Republicans, there was no contest in 2004, since Bush was unopposed.

Still, considering that Republicans outnumbered Democrats by over 10,000 in the 2000 primary, but were outnumbered by over 14,000 in the 2008 primary, the GOP has to be worried. This is especially true when you consider that the Democratic vote in the 2006 primary was almost double that of the 2002 primary. In both types of primaries, presidential and gubernatorial, the Democratic vote has seen significant growth, while the Republican vote has gone up only incrementally.

Medina Democratic Presidential Primary Vote Goes Up Over 100% Between 04 and 08

Here is an interesting comparison of both the Democratic and Republican Parties Presidential Primary vote in 2004 and 2008:

Total Vote in the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in Medina County-15799
Total Vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary in Medina County-32687
Gain of 16888 from 2004 to 2008
Percentage gain of 106.8% from 2004 to 2008

Total vote in the 2004 Republican presidential primary in Medina County-21327
Total vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary in Medina County-23111
Gain of 1784 from 2004 to 2008
Percentage gain of 8.3% from 2004 to 2008.

The Irony in David Centner's Loss to Sheriff Hassinger

On Tuesday there were two contested primaries in Medina County, both of them in the Republican primary. One of them involved David Centner's campaign against Sheriff Neil Hassinger. Centner, a former Medina County Sheriff Deputy and a officer in a suburban Cuyahoga County police department, has been running for Medina County Sheriff almost since the last election in 2004. His ability to raise money was often talked about among both Republican and Democratic politicians. He was thought to have a strong campaign organization and was believed to be mounting a challenge to Sheriff Hassinger.

While on the evening of March 4, 2008, Centner's dream of becoming Sheriff, at least in 2009, came to an abrupt end. Centner lost to Hassinger by 5264 to 12504. In percentage terms that was a loss of 29.63% to 70.37%. It is hard to see the Republican Party turning around and nominating Centner in 2012, assuming that Hassinger doesn't seek re-election after such a convincing rejection by Republican voters this year.

The irony referred to in our entry title is that supposedly David Centner was a Democrat, but switched registration several years ago. Had he run for Sheriff as a Democrat he would be the Democratic nominee today, and wouldn't have had to face Neil Hassinger in a contested Republican primary. Would he have won as a Democrat? Who knows, but there is evidence that 2008 is going to be a Democratic year.

To be clear, we haven't verified that Centner was a Democrat and switched parties. We have, though, heard this from more than one person. We have also seen a computerized voting history of Centner, though, showing that he has only voted in one Republican primary since 1998. This means that he skipped the Republican primary in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, before he voted a Republican ballot in 2006. If that computerized history is true, it obviously indicates that Centner wasn't a very committed Republican.

By way of contrast, Neil Hassinger voted in all of the Republican primaries listed above. Centner's voting history suggests that he was not a very partisan Republican. Not a good trait to have in a contested Republican primary when your opponent has been the successful Republican nominee for Sheriff three times prior to the 2008 Republican primary.

These are our parting words: If you are a Democrat, or for that matter a Republican, and want to run for political office, maybe you are better off sticking with your own party, and congratulations to Sheriff Neil Hassinger on a resounding victory.

Medina County Democratic Party Won/Loss Record in County Campaigns 1970-2007

Below is information concerning the won/loss record of the Medina County Democratic Party in elections since 1970. Although Medina County is viewed as a Republican strong-hold, it is possible for local Democratic candidates to win elections and successfully defend those offices in re-election campaigns. Indeed, since 1970 only two Democrats have been defeated in re-election bids and one of those, Ferris Brown, had been re-elected twice as county auditor before becoming county commissioner. So while Medina County is seen as a pro-Republican county, it might be more accurate to describe it as a pro-incumbent county.

As the information below shows, the 1980s were the most successful decade for the Medina County Democratic Party since 1970. From 1980 to 1990, the Medina County Democratic Party picked up four county offices and elected three judges.

In the 1990s, however, the Democratic Party lost re-election campaigns involving both seats on the Board of County Commissioners and also lost the Sheriff's office. During the 1990s, the Medina County Democratic Party only picked up one office held by a Republican, a Common Pleas Judgeship won by Judge Kimbler following Judge Baird's retirement. That win, however, was offset by the loss of the Common Pleas Court held by Judge Cross when she retired in 1998.

In 2000, Judge Mary Kovack picked up the Medina County Domestic Relations Judgeship, defeating an appointed Republican incumbent. Since 2000, no Democrat has lost re-election to a county office or as judge, but the Medina County Democratic Party has not defeated an elected Republican incumbent since 1992.

Democrats who defeated elected Republican incumbents have had a harder time holding the office they won than Democrats who defeated appointed Republican incumbents. Former Sheriff Neil Gray defeated an elected incumbent Republican in 1976, but resigned from office in 1979. Former Greg Happ defeated an elected incumbent Republican in 1980, but was then defeated in 1984. Ferris Brown, who had defeated an elected Republican incumbent for Commissioner, after winning two re-election campaigns for Auditor, was then defeated in 1996, although by a very narrow margin. The only Medina County Democrat who has defeated an elected Republican incumbent and then won re-election is County Prosecutor Dean Holman, who has been re-elected four times, twice without opposition.

Democrats who defeated appointed Republican incumbents, however, have been much more successful at retaining office. Such Democrats are John Happ, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election twice; Ferris Brown, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election as County Auditor twice; and Judge Kovack, who defeated an appointed Republican incumbent and then won re-election in 2006.

From all of this, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. Democrats who are elected to either a county-wide office or as judge in Medina County can, and usually do, win re-election.

2. Democrats who defeat appointed Republican incumbents have an easier time winning re-election than Democrats who defeat elected Republican incumbents.

3. The hardest offices to retain for Democrats have been County Commissioner and, prior to Dean Holman's election in 1980, County Prosecutor.

4. The easiest office to retain have been judicial offices. Since 1987, no incumbent Democratic judge has been defeated for re-election and one such judge, Judge James Kimbler, has changed courts, going from the Wadsworth Municipal Court to the Medina County Common Pleas Court in 1996.

Democratic Victories for County Offices 1970-1980

County Commissioner-John Oberholtzer in 1970 and re-elected in 1974
County Sheriff-Neil Gray in 1976, but resigned in 1979.

Democratic Controlled County Offices & Courts in 1980

Sheriff-John Ribar who was appointed in 1979 when Neil Gray resigned.

Democratic Victories in County and Judicial Offices 1980-1994

Sheriff-John Ribar in 1980, 1984, 1998, and 1992.
Commissioner-John Happ in 1980, 1984, and 1988.
Commissioner-Ferris Brown in 1992.
Prosecutor-Greg Happ in 1980.
Prosecutor-Dean Holman in 1988 and 1992.
Auditor-Ferris Brown in 1982, 1986, and 1990.
Auditor-Mike Kovack in 1994 and 1998.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge-Judith Cross in 1986 and 1992.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge-James Kimbler in 1987 and 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge-Dale Chase in 1987 and 1993.

Democratic Controlled Offices Lost 1980-1993

Prosecutor in 1984.
County Commissioner in 1992.

Democratic Controlled Offices Successfully Defended 1980-1993

Medina County Commissioner in 1984 and 1988.
Medina County Sheriff in 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992.
Medina County Auditor in 1986 and 1990.
Medina County Prosecutor in 1988.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge in 1992.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge in 1987 and 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge in 1993.

Democratic Controlled County Offices & Courts in 1993

Commissioner Ferris Brown
Prosecutor Dean Holman
General Division Judge Judith Cross
Auditor Mike Kovack
Sheriff John Ribar
Coroner Neil Grabenstetter
Wadsworth Judge James Kimbler
Medina Judge Dale Chase

Democratic Controlled Offices & Courts in 2007

Prosecutor
Auditor
Coroner
General Division Judge
Domestic Relations Judge
Medina Judge

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Won 1992-2007

Commissioner-1992
DR Court Judge-2000
Common Pleas Court, General Division-1996

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Lost 1992-2007

Commissioner 1992
Commissioner 1996
Sheriff 1996
Wadsworth Judge 1997

Democratic Controlled Offices & Judicial Offices Successfully Defended 1992-2007

Auditor
Prosecutor
Common Pleas General Division Judge
Domestic Relations Judge
Medina Judge

Democratic Elected Officials Who Won Re-Election 1974 to 2008

Medina County Commissioner John Oberholtzer in 1974
Medina County Prosecutor Dean Holman-re-elected in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004
Medina County Sheriff John Ribar in 1984, 1988, and 1992.
Medina County Coroner Neil Grabenstetter in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. (Dr. Grabenstetter in running unopposed in 2008.)
Medina County Commissioner John Happ in 1984 and 1988.
Medina County Auditor Ferris Brown in 1986 and 1990.
Medina County Auditor Mike Kovack in 1998, 2002, and 2006.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge Judy Cross in 1992.
Medina County Common Pleas Judge James Kimbler in 2002 and 2008. (Judge Kimbler is unopposed in the 2008 election.)
Medina County Domestic Relations Judge Mary Kovack in 2006.
Wadsworth Municipal Court Judge James Kimbler in 1993.
Medina Municipal Court Judge Dale Chase in 1993, 1999, and 2005.

Number of times that Democratic officials have been re-elected to county offices and courts: 28.

Democratic County Officials Who Defeated Republican Incumbents in Elections for County Offices & Judicial Offices from 1976 to 2007

Neil Gray-elected Sheriff in 1976.
John Happ-elected Commissioner in 1980.
Greg Happ-elected Prosecutor in 1980.
Ferris Brown-elected Auditor in 1982.
Dean Holman-elected Prosecutor in 1988.
Ferris Brown-elected Commissioner in 1992.
Mary Kovack-elected Domestic Relations Judge in 2000.

Medina County Dems Elect More Precinct Committeepersons Than GOP

Last night Medina County Democrats elected 62 precinct committeepersons while Medina County Republicans elected 51 such officials. Under Ohio law, any political party that has status as a "major political party" must have an elected precinct committeeperson in each precinct. These officials are supposed to be the building blocks of political parties. Their jobs are to help campaign for nominees of their parties in their respective precincts.

While Medina County Democrats elected more such officials, both parties didn't elect such officials in a majority of Medina County precincts. There are 151 precincts in Medina County. This means that Medina County Democrats had candidates for precinct committeepersons running in 41.05% of the precincts while Republicans had candidates running for precinct committeepersons in 33.77% of the precincts.

In Ohio precinct committeepersons serve either four year or two year terms. The local parties could to decide what the terms will be. In Medina County Democratic precinct committeepersons serve a four year term while Republican precinct committeepersons serve a two year term.

Sometime after the official results of the March primary are certified, each party will have an organizational meeting. At that meeting, the precinct committeepersons who are present will elect county party officials. It is our understanding that the Medina County Democratic Executive Committee has tenatively selected April 5, 2008, as the date for the organizational meeting.

Although there can be contested elections for precinct committeepersons, neither Medina County party had any contested elections for precinct committeepersons.

Medina County Voting Patterns by Age Groups

Medina County has 12,821 voters who are between 18-30 years of age. In 2006, 3,626 of them voted and 9,195 didn't vote. Those figures translate to a turn-out of 28.2%. What is interesting is to compare those figures with the age group of 31-50 year olds. In that age group there are 40,370 Medina County voters and 18,095 didn't vote in 2006. That translates into a turn-out of 55.2%, or almost 30 points greater than the 18030 age group.

Neither one of the above two age groups, however, did as good as Medina County voters age 51-65. In that age group there are 29,160 voters and only 8,144 didn't vote in the 2006 election. That translates into a turn-out of 72%. In the 66-86 age group, which did even better, there are 12,658 voters and only 3205 didn't vote, which is a turn-out of 75%.

The interesting things for Medina County Democrats is that based on the 2004 CNN exit poll for Ohio, the group that votes the least is the most likely to vote Democratic. In 2004 the CNN exit poll showed that voters in the 18-29 year old bracket voted for Kerry over Bush by 56-42%, and was the only age group in Ohio to favor Kerry over Bush. The worst age group, by the way, was 65 and older which split for Bush over Kerry by 57 to 43%.

Assuming that the CNN exit poll results for Ohio in general reflect what happened in Medina County in 2004, Medina County Democrats need to focus more attention on younger voters. Every 1000 additional votes out of that age group should result in a Democratic gain of 140 votes over Repubicans. Thus, increasing the turn-out by 5,000 votes in that age group would be worth a net gain of 700 votes. That may seem like a relatively small number until you start doing that all across Ohio. Then the number starts getting more impressive.

More Medina County Voter Stats

Yesterday, November 17, we posted an article that gave some numbers on Medina County primary voting for both the Democratic and Republican parties. In three categories: Increase in party identification among voters registering in the four years between the 2002 and the 2006 primaries; switch in party identification between the two parties in that same period; and party identification among 18-30 year old voters who registered between the two primaries and then voted in the 2006 primary, Democrats did better than Republicans:

Increase in party identification: Democrats had 1467 while Republicans had 1405;
voters who switched parties: Democrats had 866, while Republicans had 167; and
18-30 year old voters who registered after the 2002 primary and then voted in the 2006 primary: Democrats had 404 while Republicans had 366.

The Democratic Party has more female than male voters, 8743 to 7155, while the Republicans are just the reverse. Medina County Republicans are made up of 8398 men to 7945 women. These figures mean that women make up 55% of the Democratic Party in Medina County while men make up 51% of the Republican Party in Medina County. Thus women voters are slightly more important to Democratic candidates in primaries than male voters are to Republican candidates in primaries.

It will be interesting to see if Clinton being on the 2006 ballot increases the number of women who take Democratic ballots just as it will be interesting to see if McCain and Giuliani being on the Republican ballot increases the number of men. There was a poll out recently that showed that while Clinton as a candidate took women voters from the Republicans, Giuliani took male voters from the Democrats.

Medina County Primary Voting 1998-2006

Here are the numbers for the voters voting in primaries from 1998-2006 in Medina County with the first column being the year, the second column being the number of Republican primary voters and the third column being the number of Democratic voters:

1998/ 10144/ 6856

2000/ 18814/ 8641

2002/ 11464/ 6341

2004/ 12231/ 14033

2006/ 12191/ 11675

There are several interesting things about these numbers. First, the Republican Party since 1998 has only picked up 2,147 in gubernatorial primaries while the Democratic Party has picked up 4,819 voters.

Second, both parties had their highest turnouts during presidential election years, the Republicans in 2000 and the Democrats in 2004.

Third, while the difference between the Republicans and Democrats in the 1998 primary was 3288 by 2006 that difference was 516. That figure is even more significant when you remember that while the Democratic primary for governor was a lopsided contest between Strickland and Flannery, the Republican primary for governor was a hotly contested one between Blackwell and Petro.

Fourth, the combination of Bob Taft as governor and George Bush as president could be driving down the Republican primary turnout.

Fifth, having a Democrat from a "red" area of Ohio, Strickland, being the leading candidate for Governor in 2006 helped the voter turnout in Medina County for the Democratic Primary. Between 2002 and 2006 the voter turnout in the Democratic Primary increased by 5,334 votes. Compare that to the decrease of 515 from the 1998 to the 2002 primary when we had two Cuyahoga County candidates, Fisher and Hagan as the leading candidates for Governor.

It will be fascinating to see what happens in the March 2008 presidential primary in Medina County since both parties should have contested primaries for president. Since the highest turnout for a primary was in 2000 when McCain was running against Bush, and since McCain will be on the ballot in 2008 there could be a big Republican turnout. On the other hand, since Clinton is the first woman to have a realistic opportunity to win the nomination of a major political party there could be a big Democratic turnout. Of course, it is not an either-or situation since voters who occasionally vote in party primaries come from ranks of independents and not the other party.

This is shown by the fact that from 2002 to 2006 only 886 voters went from voting Republican to voting Democratic in primaries even though the number of Democratic voters increased by over 5,000. Clearly most of the increase came from previously non-affliated voters voting in the Democratic primary since only 1467 voters who registered after the primary election of May, 2002 but before the May, 2006 primary took a Democratic ballot in that primary. Those figures mean that 27.5% of the increase turnout for the two Democratic primaries of 2002 and 2006 came from new Medina County voters while 72.5% came from voters who were registered before the 2002 primary. No matter what, though, the numbers from the March 2008 primary will be interesting to analyze.