Saturday, May 10, 2008

Results from New L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll

If the November election were held today, Clinton leads McCain by nine points, Obama leads McCain by six points. This is a slight turnaround from the Times/Bloomberg poll in February where McCain led Clinton by six points and Obama by 2 points, within poll’s margin of error, but the direction has changed in favor of the Democrats.

Now 2/08 1/08

Hillary Clinton 47% 40% 46%
John McCain 38 46 42
Other cand/Don’t know 15 14 12

Barack Obama 46% 42% 41%
John McCain 40 44 42
Other cand/Don’t know 14 14 17

McCain is competitive against his Democratic challengers because he is neutralizing some of the groups that are mainstays for each Democratic candidate – older, white voters for Clinton and upscale voters and independents for Obama. Looked at another way, just three in 10 voters said they would vote for either Democrat, one in 10 said they would only vote for Clinton, less than one in ten would only vote for Obama and another three in 10 said they would vote for McCain in either match-up. If you combine all the Democratic options, 85% of Democrats would support either or both Democrats, almost the same share of Republicans that would support the lone Republican running. Among all registered voters, Clinton would beat McCain by 41% to 30% or Obama would beat McCain by 39% to 30%, with a fifth undecided.

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