The Obama Factor or Why the Media Has Trouble Covering What They Can't See

Readers of this blog will remember that we have previously remarked on how video clips of Barack Obama on You Tube were getting many more views than clips of other candidates. (See this entry: http://mcdac.blogspot.com/2007/03/2008-candidate-views-on-you-tube.html ) Now we see that Obama has raised far more money than anyone expected just a few weeks ago and has raised it from about twice as many people as Hillary Clinton. All of this seems to have surprised the political reporters and commentators. (See this article from the Washington Post, for example.)

The question is why is this catching most reporters by surprise? We think that its because it is happening out of their sight and therefore out of their control. The media is used to top-down organizations. By that we mean that a candidate forms a core group, that group reaches out to more people, and so on, but the campaign is controlled by a relatively small number of people headquartered in one place. Such a group is easy to reach and easier to cover. The media knows where they are and develops contacts within the organization.

Internet driven campaigns, which is what Obama may be conducting, are much more diffuse and much more spread out. Let's say a volunteer tapes Obama giving a speech and puts it up on You Tube which is then seen by a 1000 people. All of that doesn't really catch anyone attention, yet Obama's message has been seen by a 1000 viewers, all of whom had to make a conscious choice to watch that video clip. Some of those viewers may then be motivated to contribute or sign up to work as a campaign volunteer. None of which is necessarily going to be seen by the media covering the campaign, most of which are based in Washington.

Not only is it going to surprise the media, but it makes their job harder and decreases their power. The more that people can access the Internet and obtain information on their own, the less they need political commentators and reporters. The media didn't react well in 2004 when Howard Dean began the heavy use of the Internet in presidential politics. Whether they react well to Obama's use of the Internet will be one of the more interesting stories of the 2008 campaign.