Framing the Recent SCOTUS Decision on Abortion: Republican Supreme Court Refuses Another Opportunity to Overturn Roe

The recent decisions of the Supreme Court of the United States of America in the cases of Gonzales v. Carhart et al. and Gonzales v. Planned Parenthood Federation of America are being portrayed as defeats for abortion right advocates, and, by extension, for the Democratic Party. The reason why the Democratic Party is being seen as suffering a setback is because of the perceived support of the Democratic Party for Roe v. Wade.

There is another way, however, to portray this recent decision. This is at least the third time since the Roe decision that the Republican majority of the United States Supreme Court has refused to overturn Roe v. Wade. There are seven Republican-appointed Supreme Court Justices on the Court as opposed to only two Democratic-appointed Justices. This has been the situation for several years because since the Roe decision, only two Democratic-appointed Justices have been named to the Court. Thus if Roe hasn't been overturned, it is because Republican-appointed Justices don't want to overturn it.

Keeping Roe around makes sure that the conservative base of the GOP stays motivated. It helps in close elections like 2000 and even 2004. Overturning Roe, however, carries the substantial risk of a backlash from women against the GOP. It could cause suburban women in particular to abandon the GOP. It would deprive GOP nominees for President of a potent issue and put GOP candidates for state legislature positions in swing states in a bind.

Since approximately 90% of abortions are performed in the first trimester of pregnancy, the impact of the two recent decisions will be limited, which is exactly what the GOP wants. What it doesn't want is for Democrats to point out that it is a GOP appointed and dominated SCOTUS that is keeping Roe around.