MCDAC Kicker Visitors in 2008 Compared to 2007

The top picture shows the visitors to this blog in 2008 on a monthly basis and the bottom one shows the visitors in 2007, again on a monthly basis. The pictures come from Sitemeter, the service we use to track visitors to our blog.

As you can see, we had a noticable increase in traffic in 2008 over 2007 presumably because of the presidential election in 2008. There was also a definite coorelation between the number of blog entries we posted in a month and the number of visitors to our site.

Medina County Vote Totals by Candidate

Based on the unofficial results for Medina County from the Board of Elections, below is the number of votes obtained by both Democrats and Republicans running county-wide in Medina County. Since Medina County is in two congressional districts and two state representative districts, we didn't show the results in those races.

While none of the Republicans ran better than the top of their ticket, Dean Holman, Medina County Prosecutor who was running for re-election, led the ticket for the Democrats in Medina County. Interestingly, James Riley, who was running for State Senator, got more votes in Medina County than any other Democrat, other than Obama, running for the first time in Medina County. Riley is from Ashland County.

Democrats

Holman
44755

Obama
39645

Cordray
38333

Riley
33678

Feron
33522

Courtney
33057

Todd
32626

Sharkey
30112

Republicans

McCain
46829

Hambley
46211

Burke
45023

Geissman
42655

Swedyk
41960

Gibbs
41686

Crites
34934

Russica
32753

Un-Official Medina County Turn-Out

Based on the unofficial returns from the Medina County Board of Elections, this is the voter turn-out for the contested, non-judicial races in Medina County. Since Medina County is in two congressional districts and two state representative districts, we totaled the results in order to show a county-wide vote for those positions. The returns are ranked in descending order of turnout.

The least number of votes in a contested race involving a county official were cast in the County Recorder's race. The Republican incumbent was appointed at the beginning of 2007 and only had two years of incumbency. The most votes in a contested race involving a county offical were cast in the County Treasurer's race. There you had a mult-term incumbent combined with a sharp attack on the incumbent's record to drive up turnout in that race.

Counting the two congressional races and the two state representive races, there were 12 contested races on the Medina County ballot in non-judicial offices. Republicans won eight of them, and Democrats won four.

There were 128119 registered voters in Medina County. The total vote was 87973 for a turnout rate of 68.5%.

President 87973

Congress 79369

Treasurer 77649

Prosecutor 77508

State Rep 77352

Ohio AG 76548

Commissioner 76323

Commissioner 76177

State Sen 75364

Recorder 75017

Unofficial Medina County Results

Below are the unofficial results for Medina County in non-judicial races. The results are from the Medina County Board of Elections. The winners are in color with Repubican winners in red and Democratic winners in blue.

President
McCain 46829 53.23% R
Obama 39645 42.06% D

Ohio Attorney General
Cordray 38333 50.08% D
Crites 34934 45.64% R

Congress-13th District
Sutton 14206 56.67% D
Potter 10857 43.31% R

Congress-16th District
Boccieri 30827 55.78% D
Schuring 24012 44.22% R

State Senate
Gibbs 41686 55.31% R
Riley 33678 44.69% D

State House-69th District
Batchelder 37708 63.33% R
Schira 21838 36.67% D

State House-97th District
Brewer 7657 43.00% D
Hall 10149 57.00% R

County Commissioner
Hambley 46211 60.55% R
Sharkey 30112 39.45 D

County Commissioner
Feron 33522 44.01% D
Geissman 42655 55.99% R

Prosecutor
Holman 44755 57.74% D
Russica 32753 42.26% R

County Recorder
Swedyk 41960 55.93% R
Courtney 33057 44.07% D

County Treasurer
Burke 45023 57.98% R
Todd 32626 42.02% D

Medina County Rep Loses Chance for Ohio House Speaker, May Become House MInority Leader

One of the surprises from the November 4, 2008 election was that Democrats now control the Ohio House. Although there had been talk in political circles that the Democrats were making a push to gain control, it is safe to say that most observers felt that they would fall short. Instead, they captured control by at least five votes, and it could go as high as seven, once the results of two close races are known.

The Democrats capturing control of the Ohio House means that Medina County won't see Representative William Batchelder become Speaker, at least not this coming term. Batchelder, who has over 30 years experience in the House, was vying with Representative Matt Dolan, son of the Indians' owner for Speaker.

There are reports, though, that Dolan has decided that he won't seek to become Minority Leader. Instead, it appears that Batchelder will become House Minority Leader. Interestingly, when Dolan told the Dispatch that he wasn't interested in becoming House Minority Leader, he didn't endorse Batchelder for that position. Dolan and Batchelder had been locked in what was described as a "bitter" battle for House Speaker. It appears that the bitterness is still there.

Obama: All the Advantages of Clinton Without the Mess

First of all, let me say that I really admired Bill Clinton as a president. I thought that he did a great job for the country. His economic record was great and his determination not to let the Republicans get away with shutting down the government was remarkable. But, let's face it, the private sexual indiscretions that ended up being made public were embarrassing. Embarrassing not just to him, but to his family and to his supporters. Not only were they embarrassing, but they probably led to Al Gore losing the 2000 election and the horrors of the Bush years. I can't help but believe that his sexual hi-jinks caused enough voters in Florida to vote for Bush over Gore to have been the difference in 2000.

The advantages of Clinton were that he was brilliant, he was an incredible politician, he was intellectually curious, and he was able to articulate a vision of America that appealed to voters. The disadvantages were that he was undisciplined which led to the private, and not so private, sexual indiscretions mentioned above.

Now, Obama is also brilliant, he is also intellectually curious, and he has the ability to inspire Americans and to so ably articulate his vision. He is also politically intelligent. He may not have Clinton's ability to connect with Americans emotionally as Clinton, but he certainly showed that he has incredible political skills.

What he doesn't have is Clinton's lack of discipline . He is not going to be having an affair with an intern and humiliating his wife and family, not to mention embarrassing the rest of us. With Obama you get a lot of Clinton's strengths, but not his weaknesses. A lot of the benefits of Clinton without the mess.

How the Obama Effort in Medina County Paid Off

The headline of this article might seem a little strange given that Obama lost Medina County by 7184 votes. As far as the Obama campaign was concerned, though, it wasn't just the total spread between the candidates that mattered. What mattered was how the Obama campaign did in Ohio's counties compared to the Kerry campaign in 2004. Applying that standard, the Obama effort in Medina County paid off.

In 2004, George W. Bush got 48196 votes and John Kerry got 11924. The spread between Bush and Kerry was 11924. The total Medina County vote for the two candidates was 84468. In 2008 John McCain got 46829 and Barack Obama got 39645. As mentioned above, those figures meant that the spread between the two was 7184. The total Medina County vote for the two candidates was 86474.

This meant that on a higher total vote, Barack Obama reduced the GOP lead in Medina County by over 4000 votes. Medina County wasn't unique. In almost every "red" county, Barack Obama did better than John Kerry. This meant that when he got 60% of the vote in the eight largest Ohio counties, John McCain couldn't offset that vote with votes from smaller counties like Bush did in 2004. By fighting for every county, Barack Obama was able to carry Ohio.

Medina County Re-Elects All Incumbents

An examination of the 2008 Medina County election results shows that Medina County continues its pro-incumbent bias, as well as the importance of name recognition. Every incumbent on the ballot run re-election in Medina County regardless of political party. Every challenger to an incumbent lost, regardless of political party, sometimes by more votes, sometimes by less votes, but they all lost.

Medina County hasn't seen an incumbent defeated in a non-judicial election since 1996, when Republican Steve Hambley defeated Democrat Ferris Brown for County Commissioner. Comparing the 12 years between 1996 and 2008 to the 12 years between 1984 to 1996 shows an interesting contrast. In judicial elections in that same period, one incumbent was defeated. While it is always difficult to defeat an incumbent, in the past it hasn't been quite as difficult as it has been lately.

In the 12 year period between 1984 to 1996, four incumbent office-holders were defeated, two Democrats and two Republicans. Two were county commissioners and two were county prosecutors. Interestingly, three of the incumbents who were defeated were only in office one term before being replaced. In fact, in 1996, the one incumbent who was defeated had only been in his position for one term, although he had first been elected to county office in 1982.

One of the reasons why it has been difficult to defeat incumbents is that three of Medina County's officeholders have been in office for at least 12 years, and in one case, for twenty years. This longevity in office gives them a lot of opportunities to get their name out in the public and to become known. In Medina County name recognition is more important than party identification. An office-holder is better positioned to win an election as a Democratic incumbent than as a Republican challenger, as Medina County Prosecutor Dean Holman proved last night.

You can view the Medina County election results here.

Obama Wins Dixville Notch and Hartville's Location in N.H.

You know that you are obessing about an election when you get up at 3:00 am to check out whether Obama carried Dixville Notch in New Hampshire. Dixville Notch, and another little town, Hartville's Location, have a tradition of getting their voters out at midnight on Election Day to cast the first votes in the nation. By the way, when we say "little", we aren't kidding. The total votes cast this year in these two towns numbered 50.

So here I am at 3:00 am checking out the numbers. It turns out that Obama won both towns. In Dixville Notch he won by a vote of 15 to 6 and Hartville's Location by 17 to 10, for a total of 32 to 16. In Hartville's Location there were two write-in votes for Ron Paul. Ralph Nader was on the ballot in both locations, but got no votes.

Dixville Notch almost always votes Republican. In fact, since 1960, it has only gone Democrat for President one time, and that was in 1968. So, the fact that Obama won could mean something, or it might not mean a thing. In any event, there it is. You can read the whole article about Dixville Notch and Hartville's Location here.

The image to the left is from the Columbus Dispatch website. The headline is from an article that appeared on Sunday, November 2, 2008. The article reports on the last of the Dispatch polls for the 2008 presidential race. The last poll that the Dispatch did showed Obama with a 7 point lead. This poll shows him with a 6 point lead, both margins are outside of the margin of error. 

The Dispatch claims that its poll has always predicted the winner of what it refers to as "modern" presidential elections, although it also points out that the last poll taken on the 2004 election had Kerry and Bush tied. Bush went on to win by 2.1% of the vote. I am assuming that the 2004 Dispatch poll showing them tied was within the poll's margin of error. 

The Dispatch poll shows Cordray easily winning election as Ohio's Attorney General. It also shows casino gambling failing and it shows the regulations on payday lending being supported by Ohio voters. 

When you look at the internal numbers for the poll, it shows Obama leading in the Northeast, the Northwest, and what the poll calls the Central, parts of Ohio. It shows Obama losing in the Southeast, Southwest, and what it calls the West Central, parts of Ohio. 

Interestingly, for all the talk about how Obama would have trouble with working class white voters, the poll shows Obama winning every income group up to $70,000, and then losing every income group above that figure. The next group after $70,000, which is $70,000 to $80,000, Obama only loses by four points. 

Another interesting statistic is the difference between early voters and those who have not yet voted. Among those who reported already casting their absentee ballots, Obama leads by 14%, but among those who have not yet voted, he only leads by 2%. 

You can read the whole article here. 

Interesting WaPo Article on Obama Campaign and Techology

According to the Washington Post's article on how the Obama campaign uses technology, this woman is one of over 10,000 volunteers working for Barack Obama in Virginia. The article is about how the Obama campaign has used technology such as text messaging, cell phones, and e-mail to get younger workers involved in the Obama campaign.

The article contains this interesting quote:

According to the Post poll, Obama had a 75 to 22 percent advantage among likely voters who had heard from his campaign in person, on the phone or via e-mail or text message but had not been reached by Sen. John McCain's campaign.

If you have any interest in technology and politics, be sure to check out this article.

The Kicker's Prediction for 2008 Electoral College

RealClearPolitics.com has this great tool where you can predict which states will be carried by which presidential candidate. Here's ours:

The Vet Who Did Not Vet Video Clip

This is pretty funny. Check it out.

The Barack Obama Thirty Minute Special

In case you missed it, here is the Barack Obama 30 minute special that was on Wednesday evening. It is well worth the time it takes to view it.

McCain Campaign Running Robocalls in AZ

Okay, now this is interesting. Talking Points Memo is reporting that several of its readers who live in Arizona have received robocalls attacking Obama. The robocalls are being paid by the Republican National Committee. Apparently the RNC is freaking out over recent polls that show Obama within two points of Angry John in his homestate. So this means that in the closing week of the campaign, the RNC is being forced to play defense on McCain's home turf. Gee, how is that selection of Sarah Palin working out for you now, Johnny?

ACORN Releases First Video Ad

Dems Edge GOP in Voter Registration in More Ohio Counties

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran an article today, October 29, 2008, about the increase in voter registration among Democrats in Ohio's 88 counties. As the graphic below shows, Democrats now out-number Republicans in a lot of Ohio's counties, including Medina County. Now you have to keep in mind that registered votes count for about one-half or less of all voters. This means that while Medina County has more registered Democrats than Republicans, it is still a uphill battle for Democratic candidates, especially in local races. What these numbers mean, though, is that the grade on that hill is a lot less than it used to be.

Dems Better for Stock Market

The New York Times had an article showing how an investor would have done under both Republican and Democratic Presidents if the investor invested $10,000.00. As the picture below shows, there is no comparison. What makes the Democratic record better is that while most Democratic presidents didn't see the stock market go up as much as some of the Republicans, they didn't experience the losses that occurred under Hoover, Nixon, and George W. Bush.

Former GOP Senator Backs Obama

The online publication Politco is reporting that former GOP Senator Larry Pressler voted for Barack Obama and donated $500.00 to his campaign. Pressler was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in the U.S. Senate. The reason he gave for backing Obama was the economy. Here is a quote from the article:

"I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better," he said. By contrast, John McCain's "handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous."

You can read the rest of the Politco article here.

PD Story on Early Voting in NE Ohio

The Cleveland Plain Dealer ran a atory on early voting in Northeast Ohio. Of the counties that it could get statistics for, Summit County leads in the percentage of its voters who have voted early. The statistics displayed, according to the article, are as of Friday, October 24th. The article can be read here.