Analyzing the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mason-Dixon Poll on Republican/Democratic Chances in Ohio in '08

The Plain Dealer is touting a new poll out by the Mason-Dixon polling firm that supposedly shows that Ohio Republicans are in much better shape than last year's state-wide elections indicated. Before people start quoting this poll they should look at who was polled.

According to the demographics of the poll, which are displayed at www.cleveland.com, the poll respondents broke down this way: 41% were Republicans, 35% were Democrats, and 24% were independents. In 2004, registered Democrats voting were 35% of the electorate, registered Republicans were 40% and independents were 25%, according to the CNN exit poll. Thus, the PD poll has 1% more Republicans than there were in the 2004 electorate and 1% less independents than there were in the 2004 primary.

Fifty-seven percent of the respondents to this poll were 50 years of age or older, while in 2004, according to the CNN exit poll, only 49% of Ohio's voters were age 50 or older. The Mason-Dixon poll respondents were 87% white, non-hispanic, 10% Afro-American, and 1% Hispanic. In 2004, according to the CNN poll, Ohio's voters were 86% white, non-hispanic, 10% Afro-American and 3% Hispanic. On gender, the Mason-Dixon poll polled 51% women and 49% men, but in 2004, again according to the CNN exit poll, the results were 53% and 47%.

Also, the Mason-Dixon poll doesn't show union households versus non-union households or income levels. In 2004, according to the CNN exit polls, 34% of Ohio voters came from union households while 66% did not. The number of union household members voting is important since in 2004 58% of those voting in union households went for Kerry.

Another figure that is interesting is the Bush job approval rating for the Mason-Dixon poll. In this poll, 40% approve of Bush's job performance. In the last Ohio poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, however, Bush's job approval rating was 31%.

Thus, comparing the PD's Mason-Dixon poll to the 2004 CNN exit poll, the PD poll has Ohio voters being slightly more Republican, slightly less Hispanic, older, and slightly more male. Compared to the Ohio poll, this poll has Ohio voters as appreciatively more supportative of Bush.

Given those facts, is it any wonder that the Mason-Dixon poll has Ohio as much more favorable for Republicans than would be assumed based on other polls? Is this an example of the PD trying to convince its readers that Republicans will carry Ohio in 2008? Does this poll reflect Ohio's voters or the hoped-for results of the Plain Dealer?