Will Clinton be Electable in Ohio?

That's the title of a column that appeared in the Sunday, November 18, 2007 edition of the Columbus Dispatch. The column appears to have its impetus from a poll that was released by A Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio voters. The poll showed that 44% of Ohioans had a favorable view of Clinton and 44% had an unfavorable view of her. The poll also showed that 56% would either definitely vote for her or might vote for her, while 41% said they would never vote for her.

There were significant differences between Democrats and Republicans, as might be expected, and some differences between men and women, which might also be expected. What is somewhat unexpected is that 35% of independents polled said that they would never vote for her. The reason that this is unexpected is that in most national polls independents are expressing attitudes much closer to Democatic ideals than to Republican ideals.

Another unexpected result, this one more pleasing to Clinton, is that only 52% of white, born-again evangelicals say that they would never vote for her while 45% of the same group would either definitely vote for her, (24%) or might vote for her, (21%). The reason why this is unexpected is that in 2004 CNN Exit poll this group favored Bush over Kerry by 78% to 21% and constitued 23% of the poll sample. If Clinton can improve on Kerry's percentage with this group by 24% points or anything close to it, then she will win Ohio, and win it comfortably.

Here's something else to consider when analyzing this whole favorable-unfavorable view thing about Clinton. In 2004, again according to the CNN exit poll, Bush, who carried the state had 47% of the electorate viewing him unfavorably. Again, if Clinton keeps her unfavorable rating in the low 40s, she will do just fine.