Will Clinton be a Drag on Down Ballot Dems?

The Wall Street Journal, in conjunction with NBC, released a new poll today that shows while the public prefers a Democrat to a Republican for president by 50% to 35%, when the choice is between Clinton and Guiliani, the result is 46% for Clinton and 45% for Guiliani. This means that Clinton underperforms the generic Democrat by 4% while Giuliani overperforms the generic Republican by 10%.

Of course, it is possible to win the presidency and lose the popular vote as we saw in 2000. The question is, though, whether Clinton will be a drag on down ballot Dems in Republican leaning areas like Medina County and other parts of Ohio? Will her presence on the ticket energize Republicans to get out and vote and, while they are voting, lead to other Republicans getting votes they might not otherwise have gotten?

One way that the top of the ticket helps or hurts down ballot races is by being in a tough race. If you are a down ballot Dem and the top of the ticket is blowing out the Republican in polls right before the election, you are a happy camper. Why? Because there is not a lot of motivation for voters who lean Republican but are not real partisans to come out and vote. If, however, the pre-election polls show a tight race, then that is a whole different story.

On the one hand Democratic leaning voters will be motivated, but so will Republican leaning voters. The number of voters turning out, and more importantly, whose voters they are, can impact tremendously on down ballot races. An election between Clinton and Giuliani could result in a Democrat president but Democrats losing down ballot races.