Why the Ohio Poll May or May Not be Accurate

The University of Cincinnati's Institute for Policy Research released its latest poll on the presidential race in Ohio. This poll was taken of 775 "likely" voters. It has a error rate of + or - 3.5%. The Institute doesn't give the internal demographic breakdown of the poll online, but according to the Institute's Director, the breakdown was 48% Democratic respondents, 43% Republican respondents, and 9% independent respondents. He did not have other demographic information available, although the Institute will be glad to send it out by email.

The problem for the Institute is that no one really knows who will be a "likely" voter in this election. Traditionally young voters, IE, those under 30, and minority voters, IE, African-American, Hispanic, Arabic, and Asian, don't always vote at the same rate as non-Hispanic white voters. Further, single non-Hispanic white women vote at a different rate than married white non-Hispanic women.

Given that this is the first time in American history that a African-American candidate has been nominated by a major political party, and given the fact that this candidate polls significantly higher than his opponent among voters under 30, it is hard to predict the outcome. Throw in the fact that there is a woman on the GOP ticket and that she has apparently has great emotional appeal to evangelical, Christian voters, and prediction of turn-out becomes even more difficult.

What Democrats can't do, though, is lose sight of the fact that the election is still approximately eight weeks away. Eight weeks is an eternity in a political campaign.

In 2000, in early October, there was a poll in Ohio showing Bush 10% ahead of Gore. Gore pulled his resources out of Ohio, and moved them to Florida. On election day, however, Gore lost Ohio by around 3-4%. Imagine what might have happened if he had stayed in Ohio, running ads, and campaigning here personally. The whole past eight years might not have been the nightmare they have been under Bush.

Analyzing the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Mason-Dixon Poll on Republican/Democratic Chances in Ohio in '08

The Plain Dealer is touting a new poll out by the Mason-Dixon polling firm that supposedly shows that Ohio Republicans are in much better shape than last year's state-wide elections indicated. Before people start quoting this poll they should look at who was polled.

According to the demographics of the poll, which are displayed at www.cleveland.com, the poll respondents broke down this way: 41% were Republicans, 35% were Democrats, and 24% were independents. In 2004, registered Democrats voting were 35% of the electorate, registered Republicans were 40% and independents were 25%, according to the CNN exit poll. Thus, the PD poll has 1% more Republicans than there were in the 2004 electorate and 1% less independents than there were in the 2004 primary.

Fifty-seven percent of the respondents to this poll were 50 years of age or older, while in 2004, according to the CNN exit poll, only 49% of Ohio's voters were age 50 or older. The Mason-Dixon poll respondents were 87% white, non-hispanic, 10% Afro-American, and 1% Hispanic. In 2004, according to the CNN poll, Ohio's voters were 86% white, non-hispanic, 10% Afro-American and 3% Hispanic. On gender, the Mason-Dixon poll polled 51% women and 49% men, but in 2004, again according to the CNN exit poll, the results were 53% and 47%.

Also, the Mason-Dixon poll doesn't show union households versus non-union households or income levels. In 2004, according to the CNN exit polls, 34% of Ohio voters came from union households while 66% did not. The number of union household members voting is important since in 2004 58% of those voting in union households went for Kerry.

Another figure that is interesting is the Bush job approval rating for the Mason-Dixon poll. In this poll, 40% approve of Bush's job performance. In the last Ohio poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, however, Bush's job approval rating was 31%.

Thus, comparing the PD's Mason-Dixon poll to the 2004 CNN exit poll, the PD poll has Ohio voters being slightly more Republican, slightly less Hispanic, older, and slightly more male. Compared to the Ohio poll, this poll has Ohio voters as appreciatively more supportative of Bush.

Given those facts, is it any wonder that the Mason-Dixon poll has Ohio as much more favorable for Republicans than would be assumed based on other polls? Is this an example of the PD trying to convince its readers that Republicans will carry Ohio in 2008? Does this poll reflect Ohio's voters or the hoped-for results of the Plain Dealer?

Ohio Poll Has Strickland at Historic Approval Rating

The University of Cincinnati released the first Ohio poll done since Ted Strickland took office in January. Strickland got a record 68% approval rating from those surveyed. This is a quote from the release put out by the University on the poll results:

Strickland’s approval rating is the highest initial gubernatorial approval rating recorded by the Ohio Poll in its 26-year history. Former Governor Richard Celeste’s first approval rating, in Spring 1983, was 32 percent. Former Governor George Voinovich received a 61 percent approval rating at the beginning of his first-term in 1991. Most recently, former Governor Bob Taft received a 49 percent approval rating in Spring 1999.

Strickland got high approval ratings from Democrats (75%) and Republicans (64%). The Poll showed that a majority of those surveyed also approved of the job that the Ohio General Assembly was doing, with 59% approving and 29% disapproving. Like Strickland, the Ohio General Assembly got a majority approval ratings from both Democrats (59%) and Republicans (63%).

The Poll also asked about what issues those surveyed thought were important and should be addressed by Ohio's state government. Ohioans thought that it was "very important" that Ohio address the following:

“Improving Ohio’s economy” (61%);
“Improving the job situation in Ohio” (58%);
“Reducing the cost of health care in Ohio” (57%);
“Reducing the number of Ohio children without health insurance” (55%);
“Improving the quality of K through 12 public education in Ohio” (54%);
“Reducing crime in Ohio” (53%); and
"Improving Ohio’s system of financing K through 12 public education” (51%).

Note that those issues really favor Strickland and the Democrats since, for the most part, they are the issues that Ted Strickland and Lee Fisher stressed in last year's campaign. Interestingly regulating strip clubs isn't on the above list.

You can read the whole poll results by clicking here and following the directions.

This entry cross-posted at www.medinacountycommonsense.com.