Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Election 2008 Website Shows Clinton Stronger Against McCain

A Medina County Dem found this website and sent us the link. It is called "Election 2008" and apparently gives updated poll results on races for President and the U.S. Senate. It presents the information in a map format and can be easily understood. The website apparently changes on a regular basis. The analysis below is based on poll projections as of April 21, 2008.

If you look at the breakdown for presidential match-ups between Obama and McCain versus Clinton and McCain, you see that Clinton matches up better against McCain than Obama. In the Clinton-McCain matchup, polls show Clinton leading in states with 289 electoral votes. In the Obama-McCain matchup, Obama has 269 electoral votes, one less than needed to win the presidency.

The difference is that Clinton picks up Florida, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, and West Virginia as compared to the 2003 results and only loses Minnesota and New Hampshire. Obama picks up Colorado, Iowa, and Nevada as compared to 2004 and also loses New Hampshire. The states that Clinton picks up have 68 electoral votes and the states she loses have 14, for a net gain of 54.

With Obama, however, the pick up states have 21 electoral votes and since New Hampshire has only 4 electoral votes, Obama has a net gain of 17 electoral votes. Again these figures are as compared to the 2004 race between Kerry and Bush.

By the way, the Senate map for April 21, 2008, shows the Democrats picking up three Senate seats and the Republicans picking up none. This could be a very good year for Democrats in the Senate, regardless of who gets the Democratic nomination for president.

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