Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Dems' Nightmare: Neither Can Beat McCain

Examining the results of the Democratic primary can be a little disheartening. Disheartening not because Clinton won, but because of the results from the exit poll of Democratic voters conducted by CNN.

The exit poll showed that white voters preferred Clinton by a margin of 63% to 37%. African-American voters voted for Obama by a margin of 90% to 10%. Thus, after over two months of primaries and caucuses, the Democratic primary vote is more racially polarized than it was at the beginning of this process.

Further, when PA Dems were asked if race of candidate was important to you, 19% answered "yes". Of those 19%, Clinton got 59% of those voters' vote and Obama got 41% of those voters' vote. Among white voters who answered that question, 76% of their votes and Obama got 24% of their votes. Keep in mind that these are Democratic voters, not voters in general. Presumably, the numbers wouldn't change that much for white independent voters and would be much worse for white Republican voters.

So, our conclusion is that a significant number of Democratic white voters are concerned about Obama's race. When you add to that the likely Republican efforts to tar with the Rev. Wright brush, the alleged connection to the former Weatherman Bill Ayers, and the 15% of voters who think he is a Muslim, then it is obvious that we have trouble in River City and it ain't spelled p-o-o-l.

Now, with Clinton, her problem is that a lot of people simply don't like her. When asked if she was "honest and trustworthy" 40% answered "no" compared to only 32% who answered "no" for Obama. When asked which candidate attacked unfairly, 24% answered "only Clinton" as compared to only 6% who answered "only Obama."

So here we are after about 31 primaries and 13 caucuses: Barack Obama can't win because he is an African-Amerian, and Hillary can't win because she is, well, she's Hillary. This situation sucks.

1 comment:

GARoach said...